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This week in review
This week from March 25 to April 1, Bingtang Orange’s highest was around $71,769 and its lowest was close to $63,772, with a fluctuation range of about 8%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there is a large number of chips traded near about 66,000, which will provide certain support or pressure.
analyze:
59000-63000 about 630,000 pieces;
64000-68000 about 750,000 pieces;
The probability of not falling below 57000~61000 in the short term is 82%;
The probability that it will not rise below 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 53%.
Important news
Economic News
A U.S. judge allows the SEC to accuse Coinbase of failing to register as a securities business.
The size of the spot BTC ETF managed by ARKB exceeds US$3 billion.
Powell stressed that we don't need to rush to cut interest rates and that an unexpected rate cut would be "no good."
Hong Kong financial services company Venture Smart Financial Holdings Ltd. has submitted an application for a spot BTC ETF and plans to launch the ETF as early as May.
Bank of America ramps up holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds
Encrypted ecological news
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is preparing to classify Ethereum as a security.
Why did the Bitcoin NFT project INK hit a market value of over US$56 million in one day after it started selling?
Tokens such as DYDX, SUI and ZETA will see large unlocks this week.
The founder of mfer launches MEME token mfercoin.
Arbitrum Foundation: Applications for the third phase of the funding plan will begin on April 15, focusing on dApp projects such as games and social networking.
Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state
Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently at, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face.
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; as well as the emergence of some directions and the possibility of certain events occurring under certain conditions
long term insights
Adding new chips and destroying chips
long-term illiquid whale
Long-term participants’ chip structure
U.S. ETF Crypto Net Position
(The picture below shows adding chips and destroying chips)
Starting from June 2023, the number of new chips in the market has been increasing.
This kind of thing happened in the bull market before 2018, and it was a very obvious feature of the bull market.
Maybe this bull market is more like the stage from 2016 to the end of 2017.
(The picture below shows a long-term illiquid whale)
The giant whale, which has been stagnant for a long time, has accumulated a large amount of holdings in recent times.
They have always played a decisive role in the market. In the side market, they are currently within a relatively safe range in the long term and have not caused much fluctuation among these groups.
(The picture below shows the chip structure of long-term participants)
From the perspective of the chip structure of long-term participants, it is more similar to the process from 2016 to the end of 2017, rather than the process from 2020 to 2021.
In the halving, there will be speculation before, and after the speculation, more long-term chips will be sold and then the chips will be gathered again.
This process is relatively fast and the amplitude will be relatively small. Historically, the most recent process is faster than the previous ones and ended faster, which means that the market has really begun to change ahead of time.
Some attitudes are already halfway through the process. If long-term participants empty their chips, the market will enter a state of vacillation, instability, and instability.
It is easy to collapse under sudden selling pressure.
Because short-term speculation has no faith and is deeply price sensitive.
(Figure below: Net crypto positions of US stock ETFs)
After experiencing the post-ETF boom, ETFs have fallen into a certain degree of cooling.
It's not just Grayscale that's selling, but some other funds are also selling simultaneously.
Of course, Grayscale's sell-off has slowed down a lot to some extent.
What this means more is that ETF funds are more price sensitive. When they buy, the price will be pushed up very crazy, and once they sell, they may suffer a bloody nose.
mid-term exploration
Incremental model stable version
purchasing power difference
Real capital
accumulation coefficient
(The following figure shows the stable version of the incremental model)
The incremental purchasing power is constantly increasing, while the holdings of short-term participants are constantly rising.
It can be summarized that the increment in the market is still actively participating in market growth.
Judging from the current situation, the incremental trend has not stagnated, and new participants are still participating extensively in the market.
(The figure below shows the difference in purchasing power)
The purchasing power difference shows that there is still relatively sufficient purchasing power within the exchange.
Current growth conditions are slightly paused.
(Chart below: Real net capital position)
Judging from the accumulation of real capital in the market, the market faces a major challenge - constantly breaking new market value records.
During the period of continuous growth of on-site capital, it also indirectly reflects that the market's growth trend has not stagnated, but it just needs continuous breakthroughs to make the overall plate bigger.
(Figure below: Accumulation coefficient)
Accumulating groups resume growth after a period of decline and stagnation.
It has stalled slightly but remains within the upward growth channel.
short term observation
Derivatives risk coefficient
Option intention transaction ratio
Derivatives trading volume
Option Implied Volatility
Profit and loss transfer amount
Add new addresses and active addresses
Bingtang Orange Exchange Net Position
Auntai exchange net position
High weight selling pressure
Global purchasing power status
Stablecoin exchange net position
Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives rating: The risk coefficient is in the danger zone, and the risk of derivatives is high.
(The figure below shows the risk coefficient of derivatives)
Market performance was in line with last week's expectations, with a small amount of short squeeze followed by volatility. The current risk coefficient is still in the danger zone, and the amount of derivatives liquidation has returned to a balanced state. This week, it is expected that the market is about to change and there may be two-way liquidation of long and short derivatives.
(The chart below shows the option transaction ratio)
The bearish protection ratio has declined slightly and is now at medium to high levels. Options trading volume fell slightly.
(The figure below shows derivatives trading volume)
The current trading volume is at a low level, indicating that another change is close.
(The chart below shows option implied volatility)
Implied volatility is essentially unchanged from last week in the short term.
Mood state rating: Neutral
(The figure below shows the amount of profit and loss transfer)
The short-term holder cost is currently around 58k, and the probability of a sharp market decline continues to decrease. Both positivity and panic are currently at low levels, which leaves plenty of room for changes in the market outlook.
(The picture below shows the new address and active address)
New and active addresses are at mid-range levels.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: Overall, it is in a state of large-scale accumulation of outflows, and the selling pressure is relatively low.
(Figure below: Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange)
The big pie is currently in a state of accumulation of massive outflows, and the net position in the exchange continues to decline.
(The figure below shows the net position of the E-Pacific Exchange)
The large inflow position of Erbi has been basically digested and is currently in a state of accumulation of outflows.
(The picture below shows high weight selling pressure)
There is no high-weight selling pressure at the moment.
Purchasing power rating: Compared with last week’s massive decline in global purchasing power, the purchasing power of stablecoins has declined slightly.
(Figure below shows the status of global purchasing power)
After a brief short squeeze in the market last week, purchasing power in the United States, Asia and Europe all fell significantly.
(Figure below: USDT exchange net position)
The overall net position of USDT exchanges decreased slightly.
Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 65,000; there is a willingness to sell at 72,000.
(Coinbase off-chain data in the picture below)
There is a willingness to buy at a price near 65,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 72000, 73000, 74000 and 75000.
(Figure below: Binance off-chain data)
There is a willingness to buy at prices near 65,000 and 68,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices near 72000, 73000, 74000, and 75000.
(Bitfinex off-chain data in the figure below)
There is a willingness to buy at prices near 65,000 and 67,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices near 72,000, 74,000, and 76,000.
This week’s summary:
Summary of news:
Coinbase's position in traditional financial laws is still unclear.
US ETFs account for 4% of circulation, and Hong Kong is actively promoting the digital currency process.
Powell said it would be inappropriate to lower interest rates too quickly at this time.
Bank of the United States purchases Treasury bonds. Although the traditional world still has a critical attitude towards digital asset-related industries, OTC funds are still slowly flowing into the market.
Long-term insights on the chain:
From the perspective of chip structure and chip holdings, this time is very similar to the bull market in 2016, but the pace is much faster;
The whale, which is usually illiquid, has not wavered and is still increasing its holdings;
There are more price-sensitive funds in ETFs, and it is not just Grayscale that is currently selling, which means that they will have a large amount of cash out in the future, which may cause very drastic changes in the market.
Market setting the tone:
The current situation is relatively stable. The current chip structure and periodicity are similar to those in 2016, but the pace is much faster.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
New players are participating broadly in the market;
Purchasing power within exchanges is slightly paused;
The market faces the test of continuous breakthrough growth;
The accumulation group has resumed growth and is currently pausing slightly, but is still within the upward channel.
Market setting the tone:
growth, test
The current problem in the market is that the market value continues to grow, but constantly breaking through the original market value is a test faced by all participants.
On-chain short-term observations:
The risk coefficient is in the danger zone and the risk is high.
The number of new active addresses is relatively at the mid-range level.
Market Sentiment State Rating: Neutral.
The overall net position of the exchange shows a large outflow and accumulation state, and the selling pressure is low.
Global purchasing power has dropped significantly compared to last week, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has dropped slightly.
Off-chain transaction data shows a willingness to buy at 65,000 and a willingness to sell at 72,000.
The probability of not falling below 57000~61000 in the short term is 82%; the probability of not falling below 71000~74000 in the short term is 53%.
Market setting the tone:
The overall market sentiment is neutral, and the short-term holder cost has reached around 58K. The market is expected to be on the verge of change this week, and derivatives need to pay attention to risks, as the probability of an extreme downward trend is still low.
risk warning:
The above are all market discussions and explorations and do not provide any directional opinions on investment; please be cautious about and prevent market black swan risks.
This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute.
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