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Weekly review
From December 9 to December 16 this week, the highest price of the ice sugar orange was around $102850, and the lowest was close to $94150, with a fluctuation range of about 9.24%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there is a large amount of chips traded around 95000, which will provide certain support or pressure.
Analysis:
60000-68000 about 1.76 million pieces;
90000-100000 about 1.71 million pieces;
In the short term, the probability of not breaking below 87000~91000 is 90%;
Among them, the probability of not breaking above 100000~105000 in the short term is 40%.
In terms of important news
In terms of economic news
On the 12th, the European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, marking the fourth rate cut this year, lowering the deposit rate by 25 basis points to 3%, while also removing the description of maintaining a 'restrictive' interest rate, opening the door for further rate cuts next year.
On the 12th, the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly cut rates by 50 basis points, while the market expected a 25 basis point cut.
On the 11th, the Bank of Canada cut rates by 50 basis points.
On December 12, Trump rang the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange, stating during the ceremony: 'For me, the stock market is everything; it’s very important, and we will do great things in the cryptocurrency and AI fields,' and reiterated his tax cut plan.
European Central Bank board member Muller: The period of strong inflation is over, hoping to see inflation at around 2%, and the market expects another 100 basis points rate cut.
Among the economists surveyed by institutions, 90% believe that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in December, with most economists expecting the Fed to pause rate cuts at the monetary policy meeting at the end of January due to concerns about rising inflation risks.
Futures traders expect that by the end of next year, the Federal Reserve may carry out up to four more quarterly rate cuts of 25 basis points. Currently, there is a significant divergence among Fed members on the long-term neutral interest rate forecast, with a low of 2.375% and a high of 3.75%.
In terms of crypto ecosystem news
CNBC reports: Texas State Representative Giovanni Capriglione announced a proposed legislation to establish a BTC strategic reserve, which will serve as a testing ground for the U.S. Treasury.
The proposed bill would enable the state to begin building a strategic BTC reserve, receiving taxes, fees, and donations in BTC, which would be held for at least five years. The bill aims to provide a pathway to strengthen the financial stability of the U.S. and establish it as a leader in BTC innovation.
U.S. Congressman French Hill from Arkansas leads three competitors to win the position of head of the U.S. Financial Services Committee. French Hill is a crypto supporter and stated in July's Unchained podcast that 'stablecoin and market structure legislation' would be his top two priorities as head.
CNBC's journalist Jim Cramer asked Trump in a television interview, 'Are you still embracing cryptocurrencies and considering establishing a BTC strategic reserve in the crypto field?' Trump replied, 'I think so. We want to do great things with cryptocurrencies; other countries are embracing it, and we want to be leaders.'
Sygnum Bank stated in its (2025 Crypto Market Outlook) report that institutional capital flows have had a 'multiplier effect' on BTC's spot price; every $1 billion net inflow to the spot ETF pushes the price up by about 3-6%.
It is expected that as large institutional investors (including sovereign wealth funds, endowment funds, and pension funds) increase their BTC allocations, this dynamic will accelerate in 2025. Among them, the proposed (21st Century Financial Innovation and Technology Act) (FIT21) and the (Stablecoin Payment Act) are particularly important for cryptocurrencies.
Jay Jacobs, head of BlackRock’s U.S. thematic and active ETFs, stated at the 'ETFs in Depth' conference: Our current exploration of BTC, especially ETH, is just the tip of the iceberg, with only a few clients holding (IBIT and ETHA), so our focus is currently on this aspect rather than launching new altcoin ETFs.
Bloomberg terminal news, BlackRock stated: Allocating up to 2% of the portfolio to BTC is a reasonable range.
CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated: BlackRock's BTC spot ETF's assets under management have now surpassed BlackRock's gold ETF, with billions of dollars flowing into the BTC market weekly.
Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, stated at a financial conference in Abu Dhabi that he would invest in 'hard currencies' like gold and BTC while avoiding debt assets, as most major economies (U.S./Europe) face increasing debt issues.
Goldman Sachs CEO stated: If regulators allow, they will evaluate participation in the BTC or ETH market.
Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural changes/neutral state
Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face.
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; as well as the possibility of some directions and certain events occurring under certain premises.
Long-term insights
Proportion of long and short-term participants
Large transfers on exchanges
Total selling pressure of the spot market
US crypto ETF reserve inflows and outflows
(Below is the proportion of short and long-term participants)
The proportion of long-term participants is still declining, while the proportion of short-term participants continues to increase.
In a bull market, there will be a phenomenon of long-term investors selling their chips, while short-term speculators are receiving them.
Generally speaking, short-term speculators have much stronger buying capacity during a bull market.
As long as this buying is still happening, and the proportion of long-term investors does not decrease too much, the problem of market collapse is not significant.
(Below is the large transfers on exchanges)
Large transfers within the market have begun to decline, and internal purchasing intention in crypto has slightly decreased.
(Below is the total selling pressure of the spot market)
In terms of total selling pressure, the market's pressure has relatively decreased compared to previous peaks.
Although the internal buying intention in crypto has slightly decreased, the selling pressure has also declined simultaneously, seemingly returning to a new balance.
(Below is the inflow and outflow of U.S. crypto ETF reserves)
Currently, cryptocurrency has entered a state of multiplier effect, with an average net inflow of $1 billion in ETFs causing a 3% to 5% rise in the crypto market. Of course, this must be based on the condition that long-term investors are not too low.
Currently, the effect of crypto ETFs shows that there is still a strong and continuous influx of buying intention.
Mid-term exploration
Network sentiment positivity
Liquidity supply volume
BTC exchange trend net position
USDC purchasing power comprehensive score
(Below is the network sentiment positivity)
After a slight decline in network sentiment, the current decline has somewhat contracted. The overall market rhythm may slow down a bit, and trend performance has not formed.
(Below is the liquidity supply volume)
Liquidity supply volume has seen some growth recently, indicating possible signs of increased new supply.
The conditions that can form judgment basis may not yet be mature, but the increase in new supply may also indicate that there is still some slight enthusiasm in the market.
Currently slightly stagnant.
(Below is the BTC exchange trend net position)
Overall, the market is still in an accumulation rhythm, and the structure for forming a trend-based selling pressure has not been achieved.
From this perspective, the market is not facing a very bad environment and still has some accumulated tone.
If considering risks, it may be due to 'wait and see'.
(Below is the comprehensive score of USDC purchasing power)
The purchasing power of USDC remains very strong, and many institutions may still participate in the BTC game recently.
It is currently difficult for the market to break away from the sideways structure amidst the process of this part of the group not dissipating.
Of course, considering that status judgment data is more about identifying the environment, the weight assigned in the decision-making process may only be relatively moderate.
Short-term observation
Derivatives risk coefficient
Options intention trading ratio
Derivatives trading volume
Options implied volatility
Profit and loss transfer amount
Newly added addresses and active addresses
Ice sugar orange exchange net position
Auntie's exchange net position
High-weight selling pressure
Global purchasing power status
Stablecoin exchange net position
Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives rating: risk coefficient is in the red zone, indicating increased derivatives risk.
(Below is the derivatives risk coefficient)
Last week it was mentioned that the market would liquidate derivatives, and subsequently, the market experienced a quick small decline that liquidated a large amount of derivative leverage.
Although the risk coefficient is still in the red zone this week, the expected impact of derivatives on the market is relatively small.
(Below is the options intention trading ratio)
The proportion of put options is at a medium-high level, and trading volume is at the median.
(Below is the derivatives trading volume)
Since the main upward wave, the overall trading volume of derivatives has gradually decreased, indicating that the short-term impact of derivatives on the market will diminish.
(Below is the options implied volatility)
Options implied volatility has increased slightly.
Sentiment status rating: Neutral
(Below is the profit and loss transfer amount)
Market positive sentiment is relatively weaker compared to the previous two surges towards the 100,000 mark.
(Below is the newly added addresses and active addresses)
New and active addresses are at a high level.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: BTC is in a significant outflow state, and ETH is in a slight outflow overall.
(Below is the net position of the ice sugar orange exchange)
Net positions of BTC exchanges continue to see significant outflows.
(Below is the E-Tai exchange net position)
ETH has seen a slight outflow overall.
(Below is the high-weight selling pressure)
The emergence of high-weight selling pressure has not had an impact on the market.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power has slightly declined, and stablecoin purchasing power is flat compared to last week.
(Below is the global purchasing power status)
Global purchasing power is declining, with a slight outflow.
(Below is the USDC exchange net position)
Stablecoin purchasing power remains flat, in a positive recovery state.
Off-chain trading data rating: There is buying intention at 95000; there is selling intention at 100000.
(Below is the Coinbase off-chain data)
There is a buying intention around the price level of 90000~95000;
There is a selling intention around the price level of 100000.
(Below is the Binance off-chain data)
There is a buying intention around the price level of 90000~95000;
There is a selling intention around the price level of 100000.
(Below is the Bitfinex off-chain data)
There is a buying intention around the price level of 90000~94000;
There is a selling intention around the price level of 100000.
Weekly summary:
News summary:
We are witnessing a new era, a new crypto era.
In the future, we will witness the U.S. using the U.S. stock capital market as the main engine, with the crypto market as a supplementary engine, and a dual reservoir.
Cryptocurrency will become a new cash cow and pricing power for the U.S., subsequently driving the global trend and ushering in an era of national cryptocurrency reserves, which must be based on having already secured absolute core and pricing power.
Thus solving some debt problems and liquidity issues in the U.S.
We are witnessing the rise of a new asset class, which is like a rising supernova.
Of course, the U.S. is only exploring this possibility. Regardless of success or failure, this process will last at least four years, and the next four years will be the best era for cryptocurrency.
Furthermore, this is likely to trigger a wave of asset allocation by countries worldwide, with many countries expected to eagerly establish national strategic reserves in cryptocurrency.
On-chain long-term insights:
The proportion of long-term investors is declining, while short-term speculators are taking on the selling chips;
Internal large purchasing intention in crypto is decreasing;
On-chain selling pressure in crypto is decreasing simultaneously;
ETF buying intention remains relatively strong.
Market tone:
The demand and selling pressure on the crypto chain have reached a clever balance, both declining, but the funding intention of the ETF remains relatively enthusiastic.
Currently, ETFs are the main driving force behind the rise in cryptocurrency.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
The decline in network sentiment has slightly contracted, which may weaken the overall extreme trend;
Liquidity supply volume has increased, currently slightly stagnant;
Internally, BTC exchanges still show a tendency to accumulate, and the current risk may prioritize 'wait and see';
The purchasing power of USDC remains very strong, and many institutions may still participate in the BTC game recently.
Market tone:
Fluctuations, games
The current risk in the market may prioritize 'wait and see' rather than 'pessimism,' but the abundant participation enthusiasm may not lead to a basis for trend judgment before breaking away from the sideways structure.
On-chain short-term observation:
Risk coefficient is in the red zone, indicating increased derivatives risk.
New active addresses are at a high level, indicating high market activity.
Market sentiment status rating: Neutral.
Overall, BTC is in a significant outflow state, and ETH is in a slight outflow.
Global purchasing power has slightly declined, and stablecoin purchasing power remains flat compared to last week.
Off-chain trading data shows there is buying intention at 95000; there is selling intention at 100000.
In the short term, the probability of not breaking below 87000~91000 is 90%; among which, the probability of not breaking above 100000~105000 in the short term is 40%.
Market tone:
Market sentiment is gradually shifting from frenzy to neutral in the short term, with current prices being higher but showing slightly lower positive sentiment compared to the previous two price surges.
However, with continuous ETF buying pressure, it is difficult to generate panic and significant declines. In the short term, there may be sideways fluctuations, so patience is needed for the next upward push.
Risk warning:
All the above are market discussions and explorations, and do not provide directional opinions on investment; please approach with caution and guard against market black swan risks.
This report is provided by the 'WTR' research institute.
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