【Blockchain Briefing 0321】
1. Market trend:
1. Short-term support level 63628, 62165
2. Short-term pressure level 68720, 70941
3. Mid-term support level 57777, 51926
4. Mid-term pressure level 70941, 73135
5. Stablecoin supply and exchange data show that the selling pressure on#BTCis not large, and the selling pressure on#ETHis flat. There is no sign of new supply of stablecoins, but exchange inflows have increased, and the market adjustment has not yet ended. The emotions caused by the American dove's speech were reflected on the market.
6. Options data shows that the trend of#BTC#ETH has not changed significantly. There is no sign that the entire trend has been reversed, and it will still be a downward correction in the next two weeks.
7.#BTC#ETH contract positions have returned to highs but have not broken through the previous high. Bulls are accumulating again and risks are rising.
2. Macroeconomic data:
1. U.S. dollar index: closed down 0.40% at 103.4
2. Treasury bond prices: The benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield closed at 4.2730%, and the 2-year U.S. bond yield, which is most sensitive to the Federal Reserve’s policy interest rate, closed at 4.6040%
3. Gold price: closed 1.32% at $2,185.80 per ounce
4. WTI crude oil: closed down 1.31% at $81.36 per barrel
5. Stock market: The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 1.03%, the S&P 500 Index rose 0.89%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.25%
6. USDCNY：7.209
7. Interest rate hike expectations: According to the Federal Reserve Interest Rate Observer, the probability of maintaining interest rates at 5.25-5.50 in May is 92.9%, and the probability of cutting interest rates to 5.00-5.25 is 7.1%.
8. Cryptocurrency: The overall market value increased by 5.93% to $2.55T, the 24-hour trading volume decreased by 6.37% to $171.65B, and the market value of stable coins increased by 0.6% to 145.75B.
9. ETH pledge situation: The current pledge amount is 31.31METH, and the pledge rate is 26.05%
3. Position data of 9 ETFs:
Updated March 20:#Grayscaleis down 9,611 $BTC (-$612M) and currently holds 368,558 $BTC ($23.46B).
9 ETFs (including#Grayscale) lost 7,849 $BTC (-$500 million).
This is why $BTC fell 7% yesterday.
4. Yesterday’s macro news:
1 Overview of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision statement: unanimously agreed to keep interest rates unchanged, reiterated that they are waiting for increased confidence in inflation to fall, and deleted the wording about the "slowdown" of employment growth in the January statement; interest rate outlook: dot plot maintains three cumulative interest rate cuts this year expectations, but at least 5 officials have scaled back the extent of interest rate cuts this year, and 9 Fed officials expect 2 or fewer rate cuts in 2024;The median expected interest rate at the end of 2025 is raised to 3.9%, and the long-term median is raised to 2.6%; Inflation outlook: The dot plot shows that the median core PCE expectation at the end of 2024 is raised to 2.6%; Inflation has cooled over the past year, but is still at "High"; Economic Outlook: The dot plot increases the median GDP forecast for 2024-2026 across the board; economic activity has been expanding steadily, but the economic outlook is uncertain.
2. Powell reiterated that policy interest rates may have reached a peak and is prepared to maintain interest rates at a higher level for longer if necessary. It would be appropriate to cut interest rates at some point this year. Significant weakness in the labor force would be grounds for initiating rate cuts. “Confidence in interest rate cuts is not far away” refers to the need for policymakers to confirm that inflation progress will continue; this meeting discussed the issue of slowing down the balance sheet reduction, and it will be appropriate to implement it soon. We will pay close attention to signs indicating the end of the balance sheet reduction. , the long-term goal is for the balance sheet to consist primarily of Treasury bonds. When RRP drops to 0, QT's "blood draw" on reserves is almost 1:1.
3. According to Nikkei: Due to the weakening of the yen, the Bank of Japan may consider the next interest rate hike in July or October.
4. The EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory in the United States in the week to March 15 was the highest since the week of April 28, 2023.
5. After Kering Group warned that Gucci sales dropped sharply, luxury goods stocks plummeted, with more than $30 billion in market value evaporating, dragging European stock markets down.
6. The U.S. government announced plans to provide nearly $20 billion in incentives to Intel to support its semiconductor projects in the United States.
7. Market news: The U.S. Department of Justice will file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple (AAPL.O) as early as Thursday.
8. Market news: US President Biden has strengthened vehicle emission requirements, which will promote the sales of electric vehicles.
9. The first patient from Musk Brain Computer Company can play chess with his mind.
10. Source: OpenAI is expected to release GPT-5 in the middle of the year.
