【Blockchain Briefing 0313】
1. Market trend:
1. Short-term support level 69938
2. Short-term pressure level 73146, 74155
3. Mid-term support level 68496, 62728
4. Stablecoin supply and exchange data show that#BTC#ETH is temporarily lacking momentum, stablecoin supply is temporarily stable, and the market continues to accumulate momentum, but this time the direction is undecided because it has been high for too long and there is a need for a correction. .
5. The option data has undergone long and short changes, the upward power of#BTC#ETH has weakened, and after the Cancun upgrade,#ETHwill have a wave of profit-taking, so#ETHwill weaken or correct in the next two to three weeks .
6.#BTC#ETH contract positions are consolidating at a high level, and risks have accumulated for many days. If the sentiment cannot remain bullish, there will be a relatively deep correction.
2. Macroeconomic data:
1. U.S. dollar index: February CPI data was higher than expected. The U.S. dollar index rose sharply in the U.S. market, reaching the highest level of 103, and finally closed up 0.082% at 102.93
2. Treasury bond prices: The benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield closed at 4.1507%, and the 2-year U.S. bond yield, which is most sensitive to the Federal Reserve’s policy interest rate, closed at 4.5842%
3. Gold price: Finally closed down 1.12% at $2,158.27 per ounce
4. WTI crude oil: closed down 0.14% at $78.10 per barrel
5. Stock market: The Dow closed up 0.6%, the S&P 500 rose 1.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.5%
6. USDCNY: 7.19
7. Interest rate hike expectations: According to the Federal Reserve Interest Rate Observer, the probability of maintaining interest rates at 5.25-5.50 in March is 100%, and the probability of cutting interest rates to 5.00-5.25 is 0%.
8. Cryptocurrency: The overall market value decreased by 2.01% to $2.68T, the 24-hour trading volume decreased by 4.8% to $163.43B, and the market value of stable coins increased by 2.57% to 144.25B.
9. ETH pledge situation: The current pledge amount is 31.29METH, and the pledge rate is 26.03%
3. Position data of 9 ETFs:
Update March 12:#Grayscaleis down 4,421 $BTC (-$316.5M) and currently holds 395,745 $BTC ($28.33B).#Blackrockadded 7,770 $BTC (+$556.3M) and currently holds 203,755 $BTC ($14.59B).
9 ETFs (including #Grayscale) added 7,827 $BTC (+$560.42M).
4. Yesterday’s macro news:
1. The overall U.S. CPI unexpectedly rebounded in February, with both the monthly and annual core CPI rates higher than expected, but the annual core CPI rate fell back to a two-and-a-half-year low;The market is worried that the Fed will reduce its expectations for three interest rate cuts next week by one; traders still believe that June is the most likely time for the Fed to start cutting interest rates.
2. Sources familiar with the matter: It is reported that the Bank of Japan is considering raising interest rates in March; if it remains unchanged in March, it may send a signal to raise interest rates; sources said that even if it ends the negative interest rate policy, the Bank of Japan may only raise interest rates slowly. Bank of Japan policymakers are understood to believe price pressures are not enough to justify successive rate hikes.
3. Traders expect the Bank of England to cut interest rates further, with a total of 75 basis points expected by the end of the year.
4. OPEC Monthly Report: The global economic growth forecast for 2024 is raised from 2.7% to 2.8%, and the forecast for 2025 is maintained at 2.9%; the growth rate of global crude oil demand in 2024 and 2025 is maintained at 2.25 million barrels per day respectively. and 1.85 million barrels per day.
5. Digital asset management company Grayscale Investments (Grayscale) applied on Tuesday to spin off its Bitcoin spot ETF, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), to reduce investor costs. GBTC was approved to switch from a trust to an ETF in January this year and currently charges higher fees than its peers, which is one of the key factors leading investors to switch to rival ETFs.
