Allen, a partner at Nothing Research, summarized his wonderful insights into the market based on the recent bull market and the experience accumulated in the industry during the two rounds of bull and bear markets. The full text is as follows:

Two years ago, I set a major tone for my operations in this bull market, which all old fans have known for a long time:

1. Fill up the spot position as early as possible, currency standard is the thinking that the bull market should have.

So I personally filled my position in November 2022, when Ethereum was 1180.

2. Be heavily invested in big pie and Ethereum, and strictly control the number of small coins within 10.

My current position is 20% in Bitcoin, 60% in Ethereum, and 20% in small coins.

3. Be sure to look for opportunities to leverage on Bitcoin and Ethereum, but never exceed 2.5x for full positions.

Why use leverage? Because it can indeed magnify profits, and this round may be the last big rise in the currency circle that ordinary people can enjoy. Why not exceed 2.5x, because I think plunges of more than 30% will be common in bull markets, and it is easy to be liquidated if the leverage is too high.

4. Unless there are obvious top features, do not sell.

But once obvious top features appear, you must sell.

At present, I have completed 1 and 2 quite well, but 3 has not been completed. This has also been a knot in my mind. I finally set up a 0.8x leverage at the position of Bitcoin 63500/Ethereum 3500 5 days ago, and the current full position is 1.8 x. It must be admitted that opening a position at this position is definitely not the best choice, it is more like a last resort, because the bottom of the pie this round is 15,000, the bottom of eth is 900, and the position where I put the leverage is already 4 times the bottom price location.

But I still decided to get on the bus at this point because I wanted to understand something.

1⃣The funds involved have changed

The passage of ETF directly allows the old money in the United States to enter and dominate the crypto game openly and unimpeded. This is seawater pouring into a small fish pond, and the fundamentals of the small fish pond itself are not important at all. This is why after the adoption of the ETF, Bitcoin did not have the deep correction I imagined, and quickly reversed and hit new highs repeatedly. Even if the technical side is very bearish, it can still rise indefinitely. The essence is that the technical side of small fish ponds is not called technical side, but that of sea water. I have recently interviewed many technical experts and short-term experts around me. They have generally failed in this wave, and they have also begun to surrender and join the blockchain revolution in the past month.

"As long as you surrender quickly, you will be a member of the revolution."

2⃣The banker has changed, the rules have changed

In the past, the main market makers in the industry were exchanges and market makers, who relied on market fluctuations to make money. It doesn’t matter how much Bitcoin rises unilaterally in a bull market. What matters is whether the amplitude is large and whether the fluctuations are large, because as long as the volatility is sufficient and there is a back and forth, the dog bettors will be very happy, and the dog bettors will open orders. The more frequently, the more exchange fees will be earned, and the greater the arbitrage space for market makers. But this time, the bankers are ETF issuers such as Huajie. Their profit model is not handling fees, but management fees. For a 5 billion fund, they charge 0.2%, for a 50 billion fund, they also charge 0.2%, and for a 500 billion fund, they can still charge 0.2%. So I ask you, do they want to make the plate bigger or smaller? The answer is of course to get bigger, because only if the market is bigger can they earn more management fees. How to make the plate bigger? Of course, the price of Bitcoin must be high, because there are only so many pieces of pie. The higher the price of the pie, the bigger the plate.

"Find the banker's purpose and judge whether he has accomplished his purpose. If not, then join."

3⃣Don’t call high before a new high, start after a new high

I vaguely remember January 2021. At that time, my partner @0x_todd and I were celebrating the New Year in Yunnan. We were soaking in hot springs and eating mushroom hot pot, and watched Ethereum go from 700 to 1,300 in one month, with a single-month increase of 78%. I was immediately confused. The previous high is more than 1,400, which is just around the previous high. At this time, the price of Ethereum on February 1st was 2283, and now it is 4018, which is exactly an increase of 76%. The previous high was more than 4800, which was also near the previous high. Let me ask you, is this moment the same as that moment? If you think Ethereum is very high now, congratulations, you will definitely think that Ethereum at 1300 was also very high at that time, and then you will have no chance of Ethereum at 4800.

“Sometimes, chasing the high is the real bargain hunting.”

4⃣ATH will take a few times to break through, but be sure to seize every opportunity, especially the first time.

The main reason why I chose to leverage on March 6 was that I believed that the liquidation data and callback strength after the failed impact on ATH on March 5 were qualified, and the rebound was also very strong. In the bull market of 2021, I remember that the daily level of ATH took 4-5 times to break through. This round, due to the strong support of ETFs, the breakthrough resistance of ATH must be smaller than the last time, so I think it is qualified when it appears for the first time. After the correction, I opened a position without hesitation, because I didn't want to bet that the second or third breakthrough failed.

"In a bull market, any bet that prices won't go up is foolish."

Finally, I hope that my sharing can help comrades who are not yet full of positions to gain some strength. The current bull market is only 1/4 of the bull market. Next, you will also experience the explosion of mainstream currencies such as Ethereum and the reshuffle of the top 100 CMC projects by market value. There are many opportunities in the bull market, such as altcoins dancing wildly and zoos dominating humanity. Each link has a 5-10 times chance. Seize this bull market!

⚠️Lastly, I do not encourage everyone to use leverage

🈲Especially high leverage

I myself was a victim of high leverage in the last round, which I reminded repeatedly in every live broadcast. This article only shares ideas and does not guide you to open leverage and contracts.

This article only represents Allen’s personal views and does not represent the views of Nothing Research, nor does it constitute any financial investment advice.