Hello everyone, I am Mr_T, a crypto wanderer, and I am a professional technology blogger. Please pay more attention to me and I will output better content.

We are now at the end of the bear market. Rather than pouring chicken soup for everyone, I will demonstrate my views from the following five aspects and go straight to the practical information.

1. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike

1. 1 As we all know, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike process directly affects the rise and fall of U.S. stocks. It can even be said that the Federal Reserve is the largest banker in the financial market. Since the interest rate hike, the currency market has also been falling. The Fed's goal is to control inflation at about 2%, and the high point of interest rate hikes is between 5.75% and 6% points. The high probability of raising interest rates in March is 0.25% points, reaching 5%. The peak of interest rates is only one step away, and the room for growth is limited.

And at this time, the U.S. financial system began to be affected, and banks had liquidity problems. The Fed's room to raise interest rates is limited, and it must not remain at a high level for too long, otherwise more economic problems will arise, and even an economic recession caused by interest rate hikes. This is also an issue that the Fed has always been considering. .

Therefore, the current magic operation in the United States is to raise interest rates while waterproofing, which is quite magical.

When interest rates begin to be cut at the end of the year, it will be the official start of the bull market.

2. Halving cycle

2.1 Old leek must have heard the saying "Bitcoin gold, Litecoin silver". The market price of Litecoin's current production reduction has increased from 40 to 105. Although it is only an increase of 150%, all the technologies upgraded on the Litechain will be on Bitcoin. Walking again. It is foreseeable that the price of Bitcoin will rise under the situation of production reduction (I have previously tweeted about the price of Bitcoin taking off due to production reduction).

The previous three production cuts have proven their reliability. Twelve years after the first production cut, Bitcoin came into the public eye for the first time. The second production cut in 2016 directly emerged from Bitcoin and Ethereum, becoming a phenomenon-level product and spreading widely around the world. After the third halving in 20 years, Bitcoin came out of a magnificent bull market and reached 68,900. How much will Bitcoin reach in the fourth 24-year production cut? 100,000 US dollars, you can think about it.

3. Bitcoin computing power growth

3.1 This picture is the growth chart of Bitcoin’s computing power. It can be seen that Bitcoin’s computing power has been upward most of the time. There was only a sharp drop in 2021 because of the withdrawal of domestic computing power. The later computing power is growing faster, which shows that more capital has entered this market and is optimistic about this market.

4. Bitcoin mining costs

This is the current mining cost of Bitcoin, which is around 21,000 (the cost of different machines is different. The average mining cost is calculated here. The cost of machines with good performance is definitely lower.) Basically low At the 21,000 position, miners with low computing power are basically losing money.

When the computing power is halved again, the output is reduced by half. Anyone who has studied economics knows that when the quantity of goods is reduced by 10%, the price fluctuations will increase even more, and they may even double. What’s more, this time Cut production in half, double the difficulty of computing power, and price fluctuations will be greater. At least the price before the breakthrough will not be too high, right?

5.200-week moving average

200-week moving average, explain (the meaning of weekly MA200, simply put, is the average cost of the price of Bitcoin spot holders in the past 200 weeks.)

The first time it was touched was in the bear market of 2016, the second time was in 2018-19, the third time was in March 2020, and the fourth time is now.​

Conclusion: The future of the bull market is bright, but also bumpy.

The above is my argument based on 5 angles as to why it is the beginning of a bear-tailed bull market (I am not asking everyone to buy spot stocks like crazy, but I want to get back close to the cost of the mining machine, or buy below.)

The above articles are personal opinions and do not constitute investment advice. Everyone should be responsible for their own funds.

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