In 2024, the Bitcoin spot ETF will be approved, followed by the Bitcoin halving and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. These factors will jointly promote an unprecedented bull market. However, the formation of a bull market is not smooth sailing, and it takes trials and tribulations to form a global consensus.
It is estimated that in the first half of the year, the market is mainly affected by institutions and policies, and is in a suppressed state. Grayscale continues to sell, the BTC share paid by MTGOX, and the number of Bitcoins held by the United States and the government may affect the market trend. It is not ruled out that the United States will introduce more stringent regulatory policies. There may be further adjustments in February, but the low point is a buying opportunity. Before the Bitcoin halving, it is a buying opportunity, not a loss and exit.
Calculated based on the halving block height, the halving of Bitcoin in 2024 will be around April 5, so there will be halving hype in March, but don’t get too excited because there will be institutional suppression, so the halving hype will not be too fomo.
Then after the halving in April, the market will not be ignited instantly, but will be gradually digested and accepted by the market. With the end of institutional suppression, the market will gradually recover after the halving.
Although the market is not going crazy, the Bitcoin ecosystem still has opportunities. Ecological development is not affected by the weakness of the market, and market confidence will continue. Retail investors should explore the Alpha of the ecosystem and actively participate, and not lose confidence due to the weakness of the market.
After the Bitcoin halving in April, the market began to adjust and show signs of rising in April and May. Starting in July, the market really rose, the market began to explode, and ushered in the long-awaited bull market. Starting from July this year, the market will continue to rise. This is the moment when the world reaches a consensus on Bitcoin, and both retail investors and institutions will participate crazily. Remember, July is the official starting point, and it can also be regarded as an appetizer.
After July, the market consensus is formed, the world enters the cryptocurrency bull market, and institutions participate, and there will be a surge. August and September are the same, and there will be many ecological projects. Bitcoin ecological projects are more easily accepted and hyped. It is recommended that retail investors abandon the Ethereum ecosystem and embrace the Bitcoin ecosystem because of its low valuation and low cost. High-quality projects have landing products, empowerment, and strong technology and marketing capabilities. The Ethereum ecosystem also has opportunities, such as the upgraded L2 and ZK ecosystems in Cancun, modular public chains, and DA layers.
Bitcoin will retreat in October, but the momentum will not be strong, so it is an opportunity to get on board. There will be a big explosion in November and December, and Bitcoin will be at least 100,000+ by the end of the year. But there will be a big retracement after the big rise, because institutions will withdraw at the end of the year.
Summary: Before the halving, the market may not have a big trend, but there are many related ecological projects and opportunities. You should not lose confidence due to the adjustment of the market, but should actively participate. After the halving, the market will enter an explosive rise in Q3 and Q4. The first half of the year is the best time to lay out (if you haven't laid out yet).
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