1. Interest rate policy
① If necessary, the Federal Reserve is prepared to accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes.
②The final interest rate level may be higher than expected.
③The Fed’s interest rate hike has led to a slowdown in demand for interest rate-sensitive industries.
④History warns us not to relax policies too early.
⑤ Restoring price stability may require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time.
⑥ We are closely monitoring the lag effect of monetary policy and will take this into account when raising interest rates.
⑦The full impact of the rate hike has not yet been seen.
⑧The data so far suggest that there will be a higher terminal interest rate in the coming quarters.
⑨The peak interest rate of the next dot plot is likely to be higher than in December.
⑩It is difficult to estimate the current neutral interest rate level.
2. Inflation
① Inflation has eased, but the decline may be bumpy.
② To keep the policy stance restrictive enough to allow inflation to gradually return to 2%, it may be appropriate to continue to raise the policy rate.
③Revisions to previous quarters suggest that inflation was higher than expected.
④There are tools to bring inflation down over time.
⑤The Federal Reserve will achieve its 2% inflation target and will not change it.
⑥Fiscal policy is not currently the main factor behind inflation.
⑦Housing services inflation will fall back in the next 6-12 months.
⑧There is no data to suggest that the United States has over-tightened.
3. U.S. Economy
①The latest economic data is stronger than expected.
② The labor market remains extremely tight; to control inflation, the labor market needs to soften.
③Some of the strength in January data may reflect unseasonably warm weather.
④The economic performance has exceeded most people’s estimates of maximum employment.
⑤From the perspective of the labor market, economic recession is still a long way off.
3. Financial Markets
①The Fed is still working on finalizing the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA), which will take several months.
②High capital requirements will be maintained.
③We have seen quite a lot of fraud and risks in the encryption field.
④ Non-bank activities in the cryptocurrency and mortgage sectors should be subject to the same regulation as regulated banks.
⑤The Federal Reserve cannot predict the level of the US dollar in the foreign exchange market.
Four: Other aspects
①Congress really needs to raise the debt ceiling.
②The current debt level of the United States is sustainable; the problem is that it is on a path where debt is growing faster than economic growth.
③Overall, corporate debt will not increase significantly.
④The Federal Reserve does not want to become a climate policy maker and its authority on climate issues is very limited.
⑤There is still a mismatch between supply and demand in the commodity field.
⑥It is important for the United States to have a legal framework surrounding digital activities.
⑦ Stablecoins have a place under proper regulation. That is a matter for Congress, not the Fed.
⑧The impact of the Ukraine conflict on the United States is primarily through commodity and food prices; both are stabilizing.
