At 11:00 PM on November 13, 2023, X announced the implementation of a 90-day tariff grace period policy, deferring the imposition of new tariffs on certain countries and reducing the current tax rate to 10%. Notably, Chinese goods were excluded from the preferential scope and faced punitive tariffs raised to 125%. The policy statement particularly emphasized that this decision stems from doubts about the enforcement of international trade rules.
Global capital markets reacted beyond expectations, with risk assets and safe-haven assets showing a rare synchronized rise. The Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded its largest single-day increase in nearly a decade, while the Nasdaq, heavily weighted with tech stocks, saw its largest gain since the burst of the dot-com bubble in 2001. International crude oil and gold prices also climbed over 3%. Coinank data showed that 94472077130 also surged past a key resistance level, reaching a high of $83,588. The offshore RMB exchange rate rapidly rose by over 400 basis points after the policy announcement, while the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index, tracking Chinese concept stocks, soared by 4%. However, the following day during the Asian trading session, the foreign exchange market showed significant profit-taking.
We believe that this round of asset broad-based gains is essentially an early realization of expectations for liquidity easing. Trump's differentiated tariff strategy reveals his political intent to divide the international economic and trade camp, while the market's short-term overreaction reflects institutional investors' stress mechanism regarding policy uncertainty. It is worth noting that the abnormal phenomenon of risk and safe-haven assets moving in the same direction often indicates a temporary disruption in the market pricing mechanism. Such abnormal trends are usually difficult to sustain, and it is highly likely that the market will return to a normal differentiated pattern dominated by fundamentals.