Dogecoin recorded a loss of nearly 46% during the first quarter of 2025, making this performance the worst since 2018. While investors hoped for a peak this year, the results were disappointing, raising fears of a repeat of the downward scenario that the market witnessed seven years ago. Will the cycle of decline and rise repeat as it did in the past? Click here for advertising services or press releases for the crypto project.
Will the scenario of 2018 repeat?
According to data from CryptoRank, Dogecoin finished its first quarter of 2025 with a decline of 46%, which is the worst since its record loss in the first quarter of 2018 when it reached 68.8%.
It is noteworthy that the coin did not record a loss in this quarter for three years, as it closed the first quarter in 2023 with a rise of nearly 10%, and witnessed an astonishing increase of 147% in 2024.
However, in 2025, performance defied expectations. After a modest start in January with a slight gain of 4%, the trajectory quickly declined. Dogecoin recorded a loss of 38.5% in February, followed by an additional loss of 17.5% in March.
Historically, Dogecoin exhibited a distinctive pattern during 2018, recording heavy losses in the first and second quarters of 68.8% and 11.5% respectively. However, it regained strength in the third quarter with gains reaching 138%.
If things proceed similarly this year, the coin may witness a new recovery in the third quarter that compensates for the losses of the first half of the year, making that period the peak of its upward wave.
Nonetheless, these expectations remain contingent on the return of market momentum and an increase in investors' appetite for risk.
Cautious forecasts indicate the possibility of a rebound in Dogecoin's price.
Analyst Ali Martinez reported via Twitter that Dogecoin still maintains its position above the minimum of an ascending channel on the chart.
Pointing out that any increase in demand at this level could ignite a rally towards the middle or upper part of the channel, which is estimated to range between $4 to $7.
For his part, analyst Trader Tardigrade suggested that the coin may have reached its bottom after the recent crash, relying on similar price patterns from September 2024.
As for analyst Kenobi Mater, he reminded of the same September scenario, predicting a new upward breakout for Dogecoin if those patterns recur.
Despite the positive analyses, the scene remains ambiguous amid the severe fluctuations experienced in the cryptocurrency markets. While some technical indicators suggest a potential bullish rebound, factors such as overall liquidity, the movement of Bitcoin whales, and altcoin sharks remain crucial in determining the future path of Dogecoin (DOGE).
Therefore, investors are advised to exercise caution and vigilance, and not to rush into decisions based solely on historical data, but to consider current indicators and the overall market conditions.