On March 19, 2025, Bitcoin traded at $85,208, up 1.8% in 24 hours, despite analysts' concerns about the market's “illusory” optimism. While gold hits new highs and the Fed keeps rates steady, crypto investors still hope for two rate cuts by the end of the year. But will this trust hold as Trump's tariff policy threatens to exert prolonged inflationary pressure? What is really happening?
Fed Does Not Cut Rates: The Market Remains Optimistic
The decision to keep interest rates steady by the U.S. Federal Reserve (#Fed ) did not shake Bitcoin traders. Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at two rate cuts this year, exciting the market. Bitcoin rose from below $85,000 to above $86,000 during the day before stabilizing at $85,208 (CoinGecko). However, Nigel Green – CEO of deVere Group – warns in a note sent to Decrypt: “The idea that inflationary pressure will soon ease is a delusion.” He believes the market is “buying” Powell's confidence too hastily.
Green points out that Trump's tariff policy – taxing imports – will raise production costs in the U.S., pushing wages up and prolonging inflation. Although stocks surged after Powell's remarks, he emphasized: “The inflation effect from tariffs is not as short-term as the Fed predicts.”
Bitcoin: Holding its Price but Not Recovering
Bitcoin is up 1.8% for the day, but still down 11% compared to last month (from an ATH peak of $108,786). On MYRIAD – the on-chain prediction market of DASTAN (parent company of Decrypt) – 74% of users believe BTC will hold above $83,000 this weekend, indicating that optimistic sentiment still prevails.
The inflow of funds into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs is slowing down. According to Valentin Fournier (BRN), the Bitcoin ETF only recorded $11.8 million (inflows), while the Ethereum ETF lost $11.7 million (outflows). However, he asserts: “The high trading volume indicates that market participation remains strong, not a loss of interest.” Bitcoin is struggling to maintain its price, while Ethereum is gradually regaining upward momentum.
Solana: The Breakout Star
Fournier is neutral on $BTC and ETH but rates Solana ($SOL ) as “overweight” – a positive signal following the big ETF news. On March 19, Volatility Shares Solana ETF (SOLZ) and Volatility Shares 2x Solana ETF (SOLT) began trading on Nasdaq. SOLZ tracks Solana futures, while SOLT is a leveraged fund, amplifying gains (or losses). Solana peaked at $136.09 during the day and is currently trading at a 2.5% increase (~$134, CoinGecko), standing out amid a volatile market.
Impact on the Crypto Market
Bitcoin: Holding above $85,000 is a positive sign, but the Fed's optimism could be undermined by Trump's policies. If inflation persists, BTC risks dropping further from its current level (23% away from ATH).
Solana: ETF news propels SOL into the spotlight, potentially attracting capital from institutions, especially as BTC and $ETH stagnate.
Sentiment: Investors still place their trust in Powell, but warnings from Green indicate the risk of a “domino effect” if tariffs exert economic pressure.
Conclusion: Is Bitcoin Stable or an Illusion?
Bitcoin holds steady above $85,000 amid the Fed sowing hope and Trump stirring up instability. But this optimism may be “sand on sand” as tariffs threaten long-term inflation, as Nigel Green warns. While Solana shines with its new ETF, BTC faces a big question: Will it overcome the macro “headwinds” to recover, or is it just a brief calm before the storm? The market is betting — but not without risks.
Risk warning: Crypto investment carries high risks due to price volatility. Please consider carefully before participating.