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US stock market opening confirms global sell-off transmitting to the domestic scene. Nasdaq opened down 2.36%, once dipping over 500 points. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeted 7%, marking the largest single-day drop in this phase, with all 30 component stocks in the red. Storage chips took a heavy hit, with SanDisk down 12.25% and Micron down 10.97%. ARM and Qualcomm fell over 7%, ASML and AMD dropped over 6%, and TSMC fell 6.17%. The big seven are showing divergence, with Microsoft and Apple up over 1%, but Tesla down 4% and Nvidia down over 3%.

BTC spot ETF has seen net redemptions for 12 consecutive days, setting a record since the product's launch. Nearly $3 billion has flowed out over the past 10 days, with total assets under management shrinking from $104 billion to $80.2 billion, totaling over $35 billion in outflows, including a single redemption of over $3 billion from IBIT, as institutional funds continue to exit at an accelerated pace.

On the futures side, approximately $1.8 billion has been closed out, with high leverage liquidations exceeding $1.1 billion, a significant upgrade from the previous $500 million, and long leverage liquidations are far from over. On-chain data is synchronously deteriorating, with 10.2 million BTC underwater, and profitable holdings have dropped below the 15-year trend line, creating dual selling pressure from long-term holders and ETF institutional redemptions.

BTC is currently holding above the low of $61,862, with the $62,000 support surviving the initial hit from the US stock market opening. However, under the combined weight of ongoing ETF redemptions, escalated futures liquidations, and expanding on-chain losses, the support remains fragile.

If semiconductors continue to weaken, it will drag down overall risk appetite. If $62,000 fails to hold, a test of $60,000 will accelerate. $BTC

On June 23, Trump posted that Iran has "completely and thoroughly agreed" to long-term or even permanent acceptance of the highest level of nuclear inspections, and if they disagree, negotiations will be terminated.

He also announced that based on Iran's "concessions," the Strait will remain open, with U.S. naval vessels on standby to reimpose a blockade if necessary. Frozen assets will be deposited into U.S.-controlled escrow accounts, specifically for purchasing American food and medical supplies.

However, Iran has been firing back! Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei stated there are currently no plans for IAEA inspectors to visit damaged nuclear facilities. Permanent UN representative Bahraini also directly refuted the U.S. claims, stating that there hasn't been such a decision, nor any discussion about it. Iran's Central Bank Governor Hemmati further stated that, based on the already signed memorandum of understanding, there is no obligation to purchase agricultural products from the U.S.

The divergence over nuclear inspections marks the third public fracture since the agreement was signed, with previous tensions centered on the management rights of the Strait and the use of oil revenues. Regarding the Strait, Bahraini confirmed full access for merchant ships for 60 days at no charge. On June 22, at least 36 merchant vessels crossed the Strait, marking the highest single-day count since the conflict began in late February, returning to nearly one-third of pre-war levels.

Iran and Oman issued a joint statement indicating they will negotiate the future management mechanism and fee standards for the Strait.

In the U.S. stock market, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 7.87%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.21%. Data shows traders have shifted from expecting a single rate hike two weeks ago to betting on two hikes within the year.

These three parallel divergences are weakening the execution of the agreement. The 60-day opening of the Strait eases short-term risks, but if the nuclear inspection divergence leads to a breakdown in negotiations, it could trigger a blockade again.

BTC remains weak in the $62,000 range; prior to the PCE data release, any regression in U.S.-Iran relations or heightened rate hike expectations could accelerate testing of the $60,000-$60,400 level. $BTC

The U.S. Senate passed a war powers resolution with a vote of 50 to 48, demanding Trump withdraw troops from Iran. Previously, the House of Representatives approved the same text with a vote of 215-208. This marks the first time since the 1973 War Powers Act that both chambers of Congress have simultaneously passed a resolution compelling the president to terminate military actions.

Four Republican senators broke ranks to vote in favor, disrupting the previously unified Republican support for Trump's military policy. The White House has outright denied the resolution's validity, arguing that the War Powers Act itself is unconstitutional and that a ceasefire was reached on April 7, making the resolution's context obsolete. Legally, the 1973 Act states such resolutions take effect without presidential signature, but a 1983 Supreme Court ruling requires a presidential approval process, leading to a legal stalemate where no eligible party can initiate enforcement litigation.

Even so, this resolution significantly tightens the White House's operational space for resuming military actions and funding against Iran. Trump had previously stated that if negotiations faltered, he wouldn’t rule out restarting military strikes, but now the political cost of that option has considerably increased. U.S. polls show that only 25% of Americans approve of the value of military engagement in Iran, with over half concerned about the sustainability of the ceasefire.

Additionally, Senate Republican leader McConnell confirmed that any subsequent peace agreement with Iran must be submitted to Congress for review based on the 2015 Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act. This introduces critical variables regarding whether the agreement will ultimately materialize.

For BTC, this resolution lowers the tail risk of renewed U.S.-Iran conflict, providing a slight bullish bias in the short term as geopolitical uncertainty marginally converges. However, the need for congressional review of the peace agreement means a longer execution path with greater uncertainty. If terms are significantly modified or vetoed during the review period, it could drive geopolitical premiums back up. BTC is currently holding above $62,000, which remains the dividing line for short-term bulls and bears. With PCE data looming, market sentiment is notably cautious, and the resolution's impact on the charts is primarily emotional, not altering the technical setup. $BTC

The long liquidations are deepening, and signs of capitulation among long-term holders are emerging.

A giant whale on the Hyperliquid platform is holding a total of $415 million in long positions across seven addresses, including 120,000 ETH and 2,000 BTC, currently facing an unrealized loss of $91.46 million. The average entry price for their BTC is $72,134, which puts them approximately $10,000 underwater at the current price, but they haven't triggered a forced liquidation yet.

The total unrealized losses for crypto institutional strategies have reached $10.47 billion, with realized losses for BTC climbing to $889 million, marking a new high since the FTX collapse in November 2022.

The market is currently undergoing the deepest liquidation cycle for longs since the FTX incident, and the capitulation is ongoing rather than nearing an end.

A key signal is that MicroStrategy has broken its 'no selling' principle by selling 32 BTC. The overall unrealized losses among long-term BTC holders stand at 15.5%, resonating with the earlier capitulation of miners and the sell-off from whales holding for over seven years. This indicates that the sell pressure has spread from short-term leveraged liquidations to the capitulation phase of long-term holders.

If the $415 million whale position gets liquidated, it could trigger a chain reaction of sell pressure. The average entry price of $72,134 suggests significant resistance from trapped buyers before a rebound to that level. Likewise, the $10.47 billion unrealized losses among institutions are also leaning towards a reduction in positions to mitigate risk. Realized losses have hit new highs since November 2022, confirming that the capitulation depth is nearing extremes but is not yet complete.

$62,000 serves as the short-term battleground for bulls and bears, with the next testing zone between $60,400 and $60,000. It’s not advisable to heavily bottom-fish ahead of the PCE data release. $BTC

Latest news: South Korea's KOSPI index plummeted 8.3% during trading, triggering a circuit breaker and halting trading for 20 minutes. The KOSDAQ startup board also activated the Sidecar circuit breaker, pausing algorithmic trading for 5 minutes. This marks the most aggressive single-day drop in the Korean stock market since June. SK Hynix dropped over 11%, Samsung Electronics fell more than 8%, and Hyundai and Kia saw declines of over 11% and 8%, respectively. Foreign investors sold off more than $1.3 billion in a single day, with the total outflow in June far exceeding any other month this year.

The core reason for the crash lies in the extreme gains of AI chip stocks previously. SK Hynix had just surpassed Samsung to become the top company by market cap in Korea on Monday, leading to a valuation bubble compounded by high-leverage semiconductor ETFs amplifying volatility. Korea's top financial regulator publicly criticized leveraged ETFs tracking a single semiconductor leader as "having no function other than causing losses for investors," and is preparing a market stabilization plan.

As one of the top three cryptocurrency trading markets globally, the KOSPI circuit breaker-level drop has led to a sharp contraction in retail investors' risk appetite.

Crypto assets are experiencing significant sell pressure linked to Asian risk assets, facing downward pressure across the board.

Meanwhile, on-chain data shows that long-term whales, holding assets for over 7 years, are continuously selling at a rate of about 1,000 coins per hour. While this is a routine profit-taking strategy, it resonates with the selling pressure from Korean retail investors.

The uncertainty lies in the strength of the regulatory stabilization measures! If Korea restricts leveraged ETFs or introduces a short-selling ban, a quick stabilization may occur. However, if they allow free fall, panic could spread to Japan and beyond. Additionally, today's Asian sell-off happened before the U.S. market opened; if U.S. stocks drop as well, sell pressure in the crypto market will further intensify.

Korean circuit breaker events typically lead to short-term overselling but do not alter the mid-term trend. For now, it's best to sit on the sidelines, waiting for regulatory signals and the performance of the U.S. market opening. $BTC

After the US-Iran negotiations reached a phased consensus, the control of the Strait of Hormuz has been handed over to Tehran and is now in the execution phase. In the past 24 hours, 24 merchant ships have crossed, maintaining the average level of the previous three days, but far below the normal flow of 140 ships per day before the crisis, indicating a slow recovery in shipping.

Regarding the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, both the US and Iran have decided to extend the ceasefire for 60 days and set up a 'conflict avoidance group' to coordinate the tensions between Hezbollah and Israel. However, Israeli Defense Minister Katz has previously stated that the military actions are 'not subject to any restrictions', and Israel's non-cooperation remains the biggest risk.

Internal political resistance in the US is beginning to surface. Senators Ted Cruz and Roger Wicker have publicly questioned the terms of the agreement as being too lenient towards Iran, undermining regional security. If hardliners in Congress initiate legislative pushback or apply pressure on the administration, the execution of the 60-day roadmap will face additional uncertainty.

Ultimately, the slow recovery of the strait passage suggests geopolitical risks may slowly fade rather than clear swiftly. The extension of the ceasefire is a positive signal, but the triple risks of domestic political resistance in the US, Israeli non-cooperation, and the discrepancies between Iran's military and political spheres remain unresolved.

Soon, the PCE data on June 25 will be the next directional catalyst. It is not advisable to go heavy before the triple risks are resolved. $BTC

From June 21-22, high-level talks between the US and Iran took place at the Bürgenstock in Switzerland, lasting about 18 hours. US Vice President Vance stated that the negotiations made "great progress in the past few hours."

Mediators Qatar and Pakistan released a joint statement confirming the conclusion of the talks.

Iran disclosed five key points reached:
① Establishment of three working groups (nuclear issues, sanctions, monitoring mechanisms).
② Iran signed a memorandum with Qatar to unfreeze assets.
③ The US issued a 60-day waiver on Iranian oil/petrochemical sanctions.
④ All parties agreed to reach a final agreement roadmap within 60 days.
⑤ A communication hotline was established for the Strait of Hormuz and a "conflict de-escalation group" for Lebanon.

Crucially, the fourth prerequisite of the memorandum's Article 13 includes: ① a full ceasefire (especially on the Lebanese front), ② lifting the maritime blockade, ③ unfreezing assets, ④ oil exemptions; all must be executed before Iran enters the final stage of negotiations.

An Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson clearly stated that the US "either cannot or does not want to implement" this condition, namely the Lebanese ceasefire, as Israel continues to violate commitments.

Currently, negotiations are stalled in four areas:
① Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian foreign minister stated that "the blockade has been lifted," but the military claims the strait remains closed, with traffic at zero. Although the hotline has been established, actual passage has yet to resume.
② Lebanese ceasefire. Iran has formally entered the Lebanese security framework through the "conflict de-escalation group," excluding Israel. However, the Israeli chief of staff stated that military operations "are still ongoing," and Netanyahu ordered the military not to withdraw at this stage. In two days of airstrikes on the 19th and 20th, hundreds of people were killed.
③ Agreement text. Currently, only five key points released unilaterally by Iran exist, with mediators yet to publish the full text, and the US has not independently confirmed it.
④ Trump's threats have sparked diplomatic turmoil. Trump warned that if Iran does not stop supporting Hezbollah, the US will "hit Iran hard again." The Iranian delegation briefly walked out in protest, demanding an apology from Trump or they would not continue formal talks.

In simple terms, the framework is set, but execution is stuck. The strait is not open, the ceasefire is fragile, Israel is excluded, and Trump has issued threats. As long as the four prerequisites of Article 13 are not met, the final agreement remains on hold. $BTC

First, let's check out the $BTC whale address section in the charts. The situation from last week wasn't great at all, with a net outflow of 1471 coins over the week, marking two consecutive weeks of net outflows. Just yesterday, with a slight price rebound, another 1144 coins flowed out. It's hard not to get the feeling that the price might regain its upward momentum, but it looks pretty rough overall.

However, looking at the BTC spot ETF data, although we're still in a net outflow state, that volume has been significantly decreasing. That's a positive sign. But it doesn’t mean the ETF won’t continue to see outflows. If we face another significant price drop, I expect the selling pressure from the ETF will rise again.

At this point, some folks might wonder, is it the price going up or down that affects the data? Or does the data affect the price movements? It's a two-way street. The data is just for reference. If there's a clear price rise or fall, it usually reflects the actions of major players, and the data will likely align with that. For instance, if we see a notable price drop, the data the next day will almost certainly look bad. But the actions of the whale addresses on-chain might serve as some kind of warning signal, especially in light of the recent net outflows or significant net inflows.

Back to the charts, based on the current trends, here are my thoughts:

1. The price needs to effectively break above the 65000 level for a chance at sustained upward movement, which would restore the original bullish trend.

2. The bulls' defense is only around the 63000 level. If the price breaks below this level, it likely indicates a downtrend, and we might be looking at lower levels around 61000 or even 60000.

3. On the short-term intraday front, it seems we're still in a rebound process. As long as the bulls hold above the 63500 level, there's potential for an attack on the 65000 level, which is where we gauge bullish strength. If that attack succeeds, the bulls will gain strength. If it fails and we hit resistance and pull back, the rebound could end, leading to a downturn.

In summary, this is just for reference.

As of June 21, the U.S. BTC spot ETF has seen a net outflow of about $6.35 billion over the past 30 days, setting a record since its launch in January 2024, ranking first among all 582 30-day windows.

The ETF has experienced six consecutive weeks of net outflows, with total net inflows dropping to around $53.4 billion. This week alone, the net outflow was approximately $227 million, accounting for 96% of the total outflows from crypto ETFs, with funds predominantly leaving the BTC side.

MSBT currently holds about 4,345 coins, valued at approximately $271 million, with recent purchases consistently flowing in through Coinbase Prime.

The core driver behind this record outflow is the Fed's unexpected hawkish shift during the June FOMC meeting. The dot plot indicates that the median interest rate forecast for the end of 2026 was significantly raised from 3.4% to 3.8%, effectively putting an end to the rate cut narrative.

The current uncertainty revolves around the U.S.-Iran technical-level negotiations that took place on June 21 in Bürgenstock, Switzerland. If a breakthrough occurs, geopolitical risks may ease, potentially alleviating some outflow pressure. However, the structural pressure created by the upward revision of interest rate expectations is unlikely to reverse in the short term.

The $60,400-$62,000 support zone is the battleground for bulls and bears, while the resistance at $64,000-$65,000 remains unbroken with low volume, keeping a bearish watch for now. $BTC

The talks between the US and Iran in Switzerland remain at a standstill. US envoy Wittekopf is on his way to Switzerland, while Trump’s son-in-law Kushner has already arrived and is on standby. Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif plans to head to Switzerland before June 20, but his schedule is still subject to change. The meeting that was originally set for June 19 in the Swiss region of Birg has been canceled.

The core sticking point in the negotiations is the ceasefire in Lebanon. Zarif has made it clear that the ceasefire in Lebanon is crucial for Iran and a decisive factor in the talks. Although Israel and Hezbollah reached a ceasefire at 4 PM on June 19, the IDF retains the clause of 'retaliate if attacked.' More importantly, even after the ceasefire, the IDF has launched airstrikes in multiple locations in Lebanon, resulting in at least 47 deaths and 97 injuries on that day. The enforcement of the ceasefire agreement is in question.

Meanwhile, the mediators will hold a meeting in Egypt on June 21. Overall, the negotiations have shifted from 'postponed' to 'people in place, conditions being negotiated,' with June 23 being a key observation window.

Relevant data shows that if BTC drops below $60,400, the cumulative long liquidation intensity will reach $1.13 billion. Conversely, if it breaks above $66,000, the short liquidation intensity will hit $765 million.

A smooth start to the negotiations would be favorable for price recovery.

If the ceasefire breaks down again and the talks are stalled, market uncertainty will rise once more.

Keep a close eye on whether Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif departs as scheduled and if the negotiations can kick off around June 23. $BTC

On-chain data shows that Morgan Stanley increased its holdings by 266.56 BTC last week through its spot ETF product MSBT, bringing its total holdings to 4,348 BTC, which is approximately $274 million at current market prices. The institution has been buying against the trend as the price retraced from above $67,000 to around $63,000.

This move sharply contrasts with the overall weak performance of the ETF market.

This week, the spot ETFs experienced a cumulative net outflow of $227.5 million, with Grayscale's GBTC seeing a single-week outflow of $156.3 million and BlackRock's IBIT losing $44.7 million. Since June, the cumulative net outflow for ETFs has reached $2.26 billion.

However, it's worth noting that Morgan Stanley's MSBT saw a contrary net inflow of $25.8 million during the same period, indicating a clear divergence in institutional capital flow.

Currently, the Fear and Greed Index has risen from 14 yesterday to 23 but remains in the 'extreme fear' zone.

Morgan Stanley's purchase of 266 BTC represents a very small percentage of the daily trading volume, implying limited short-term supply-demand impact.

Nonetheless, the signals from leading Wall Street institutions continuing to enter the market during this extreme fear zone are crucial, providing marginal institutional buying support for the $60,000-$62,000 support area.

Lastly, as long as the short-term resistance at $64,000-$65,000 remains unbroken, we should maintain a bearish watch in this range.

Only if the trend of accumulation by top institutions is confirmed can we consider medium to long-term opportunities in the $60,000-$62,000 range. Of course, this is assuming we don't drop below it, haha. $BTC