In yesterday's weekly report, I reminded everyone, 'Don't chase highs today or tomorrow, short on weak rebounds, and exit after a sharp drop.' Last night, this prediction was completely validated. So why did I have such a prediction yesterday? Will today's big coin continue to drop?

First, the judgment that it would drop yesterday and today is fundamentally based on the larger cycle's assessment, with the monthly chart setting the main tone downward, and the weekly rebound on the daily chart not exceeding 50% of the previous week, indicating a weak rebound. In weak rebounds, sudden accelerations are rare, and they generally require a second bottom test or even evolve into a downward continuation. Therefore, I reminded everyone not to chase highs yesterday and to short on weak rebounds.

But why did there suddenly appear a strong surge after yesterday's sharp drop? Actually, this concern was there during yesterday's drop because it fell a bit early; early is early, and it didn't have sustainability, which allowed the 4-hour moving average to successfully golden cross. Thus, the 4-hour chart evolved into a second long position, which is the confidence for the bulls.

Moreover, as of now, the 4-hour MACD double lines have not broken below the zero axis, and the short term remains strong.

So why did it drop back after a surge yesterday? The fundamental reason lies in the bearish trend on the daily chart, combined with the 30-minute and 1-hour charts that had just turned bearish, which constituted the second short position.

Then the MACD bottom divergence will lead to another price rebound.

From the above illustrations, you can see that the second position of a particular cycle is very important. When several adjacent cycles are at different directional second positions, the price tends to fluctuate.

For example, right now, the daily chart is at the second short position, the 4-hour chart is at the second long position, and the 30-minute or 1-hour chart has also reached the second short position. With three different cycles pulling back and forth, it's quite challenging.

So how will it go today? First, the conclusion: I personally believe it won't drop easily today.

Why?

Now the second long position on the 4-hour chart has emerged, and after a bottom divergence on the 30-minute chart, the 26 moving average has turned upward. If there’s no sharp drop now, the 30-minute moving average will inevitably turn long, and if a second position forms afterward, there’s a good chance for a quick surge today. This is the opportunity to focus on today.

Did you understand? If not, leave your questions or opinions in the comments.