1. Inflation rate expectations
One-year inflation rate expectations: Published value 4.9% (higher than expected 4.2%), indicating that short-term inflation pressure may intensify. This may strengthen market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, leading to a stronger dollar. As a risk asset or non-U.S. asset, cryptocurrencies may face selling pressure.
- Five to ten-year inflation rate expectations: Published value 3.9% (higher than previous value and expectations), rising long-term inflation expectations may weaken market confidence and exacerbate concerns about tightening policies, further negatively impacting risk assets (including cryptocurrencies).
2. Consumer Confidence Index
- Consumer Confidence Index initial value 57.9 (below previous value and expectations): A decline in confidence may reflect a weak economic outlook or lead investors to shift to safe-haven assets. However, if the market interprets it as 'increased recession risk,' it may encourage the Federal Reserve to slow down interest rate hikes, thereby providing short-term support for risk assets (including cryptocurrencies).
- Current conditions index 63.5 (above expected 65): A stronger-than-expected economic situation may support interest rate hike expectations, which is bearish for cryptocurrencies.
3. Comprehensive impact on cryptocurrency
- Short-term bearish pressure: Inflation data exceeding expectations may strengthen interest rate hike expectations, and a stronger dollar and rising interest rate environment will suppress risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. Especially mainstream coins like Bitcoin, which are usually highly correlated with U.S. stocks, may come under pressure simultaneously.
- Long-term uncertainty: If the market believes that persistent inflation will force the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates for an extended period, cryptocurrencies may face ongoing liquidity tightening pressure.
- Divergence in safe-haven demand: If recession risks rise, some funds may shift to Bitcoin (seen as 'digital gold'), but it should be judged in conjunction with market sentiment.
4. Impact assessment
- Moderately weak: The impact of a single data point on cryptocurrency is usually limited, as its price is more driven by market sentiment, technical factors, and industry events (such as regulation, ETF progress). If the data does not significantly change expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy path, the market reaction may be temporary.
- Need to pay attention to subsequent data: Key data such as March non-farm employment and CPI, if consistently exceeding expectations, may amplify the impact of this inflation data.
Conclusion:
Short-term bearish, but limited impact. The cryptocurrency market may experience a pullback due to rising interest rate expectations, but if the market has already digested some of the expectations, or if major funds focus on other factors (such as technical support, institutional entry, etc.), the decline may be limited. It is recommended to combine technical analysis and real-time market sentiment for comprehensive judgment.
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