#乌俄停火 Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire, Short-Term Bullish, But Long-Term Watch the 'Face'
Once the news of the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire is announced, the price of Bitcoin is likely to rise, but how much and for how long depends on three key factors:
Whether the ceasefire agreement is reliable, the direction of Federal Reserve policies, and whether institutional funds will flee.
During the Russia-Ukraine conflict, global funds went into a panic mode, leading to a rise in gold and the US dollar, while Bitcoin actually fell. However, once a ceasefire agreement is in place, market panic will dissipate, and funds will withdraw from safe-haven assets like gold and flow back into high-risk, high-return assets like Bitcoin.
The war has driven up oil prices, food prices, and inflation, forcing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates aggressively to suppress Bitcoin. If the ceasefire alleviates supply chain issues and reduces inflation, the Federal Reserve may slow down interest rate hikes or even cut rates, which would directly benefit Bitcoin.
After Ukraine agreed to a 30-day ceasefire today, Bitcoin rose by 1.21%. In 2022, when Russia-Ukraine negotiations eased, it also rebounded sharply from a crash. The market favors certainty, and a ceasefire is the biggest certainty.
Why do we say to watch the 'face' in the long term?
If the ceasefire agreement is only temporary and could break down at any time, funds will not dare to bet long-term. Historically, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has seen numerous instances of 'fighting while negotiating,' and the market has long since become numb.
Even if there is a ceasefire, if US inflation remains uncontained and the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, Bitcoin will still be under pressure. One major reason for Bitcoin's crash during the war in 2022 was the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes leading to a collapse of risk assets.
Currently, Bitcoin ETF holdings exceed $100 billion, and institutions have the motive to push prices up for profit-taking. For example, when Trump hyped the 'crypto strategic reserve' in January 2025, Bitcoin surged in the short term only to be quickly sold off.
The Russia-Ukraine ceasefire is a short-term positive for Bitcoin, but to make big profits, one still has to watch the movements of the Federal Reserve and institutions. Remember three things:
Don't get too excited with every rise; the big players are waiting for retail investors to take over;
Don't be greedy, take profits when you've made 10%-20%, secure your gains;
Hold onto Bitcoin long-term; it remains the digital gold that hedges against inflation.
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