Before 12 o'clock, the 4-hour K-line indeed stood above the 5-day moving average, and then continued to rebound. I told my friends today that this trend is highly likely. Although I could guess it, I did not make any operation. It is too tiring to engage in short-term trading in such small fluctuations. I might as well go out for a drink.
The trend in recent days is really frustrating. Many people make money by luck in a trend, but they will always lose it back by their own strength in this consolidation market. There is also a kind of people who will thrive in this volatile market, making money whether the market goes up or down. But don't be happy too soon, as they are also prone to lose both the capital and the profit in a trend. The key is to know which type of trader you are and which market situation you are suitable for.
CoinCarp data shows that BTC and ETH have continued to flow into exchanges in the past month, and there has been a trend of continued increase in the past 7 days. This continuous inflow usually indicates that there is a risk of selling in the market. If the market rebounds in the future, it is easy to be suppressed by short sellers.
However, there is some good momentum today. USDT has a net inflow of 810 million today. Perhaps it is a behavior of covering positions after losses, or perhaps this part of the funds wants to enter the market?
Next, I have some bad news to share with you.
Gerald Connolly, a senior Democratic member of the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Government Oversight and Reform, wrote to the Treasury Department, demanding a halt to the Trump administration's plan to establish a national Bitcoin reserve, accusing it of a "clear conflict of interest." Connolly pointed out that Trump's promotion of the plan without congressional approval could benefit him and his allies while harming the interests of U.S. taxpayers.
This kind of news will have a negative impact on the market, but the impact is not big. I think it is more due to the partisanship between the two parties. However, it will indeed affect the market sentiment. For example, according to Alternative.me data, the cryptocurrency panic and greed index fell again today, falling to 27 (yesterday's 45), and the level is still panic. This panic sentiment also puts pressure on the market, but it has not reached the state of extreme panic, so it is not the time to buy the bottom. If there is extreme panic, it will not be far from the bottom.
According to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in March is 98.0%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 2.0%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged by May is 79.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 19.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 0.4%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged by June is 11%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 71.6%.
It has been mentioned in previous internal references that the price of Bitcoin has continued to fall from 110,000, and the fundamental reason is that the Fed’s expectation of interest rate cuts has failed. At present, there is still no hope of interest rate cuts within three months. If this market wants to stabilize, the expectation of interest rate cuts must rise again. Before that, there will not be much market.
From the technical chart, both the daily and 4-hour charts are still in the second short position. There is definitely no opportunity to go long in the mid-line. Even if you use the bottom guessing model, you have to wait until there is a big drop before intervening. At this point, you can only wait for a short-term rebound before going short.
Counting from the 6th, the rebound from the bottom can't even pass 0.5. If we look at the decline after the 2nd, it can't even pass 0.382. The overall trend is still weak. So, don't rush to buy the bottom.
If you really want to do short-term trading, you need to wait a little longer. Now on the 30M chart, the price is in the second position of the bulls, and MACD shows that the short-term strength has not yet weakened, so you have to wait for the second position to rise again before intervening, pay attention to the top divergence signal, do not predict the point, do it if it diverges, and wait if it does not diverge, it's that simple.
Market analysis is not equal to trading. Trading does not require analysis. You just need to watch and do to see if it conforms to the model. If it conforms, do it. If it does not conform, don’t do it.