So far, Bitcoin's structure has had the structural dynamics of a mature asset, with upward spikes and consequent consolidations that, for many, become "distressing." Bitcoin has a $2T Market Cap and is the sixth most potent asset among the world's fiat currencies (among the sharks, it is only worth 0.2% of all of them!)… Impressive!
By tracing a Fibonacci Expansion from the bottom in November 2022 ($15,450K) to our consolidation in 2024 ($48,934K), we demarcate a target between $136K and $150K, converging with the Realized Price Bands metric, which shows us the same picture regarding the money that was invested in Bitcoin (ex: I have 1 BTC bought at $50K and I will sell at $100K, means a gain and net inflow of $100K in Bitcoin), it becomes a good gauge for the next resistance in Bitcoin.
To reach these numbers, Bitcoin will have to have an MCap of around $3 trillion "($150K*$2.08T)/$104k = $3T)". In the 2021 cycle, the Realized Cap increased to the ATH 470% (5x) since the bearish cycle; in the current cycle, the Market Cap increased only 111% (2.12x), still with room to grow compared to 2021. Therefore, with a Bitcoin price at $150K, the Realized Cap would be approximately $1.21 trillion (an increase of $350B and 43%).
Possible Impulses:
ETFs—Since launch, the Realized Cap ETFs have received ~$40B in infloch, representing only 4.7% of the Realized C. To get something close to $35,0B, they would have to enter more than 7x the current number. That's a lot of liquid capital!
- The Bitcoin Futures market has an aggregate value of $95B, representing 11.45% of the Realized Cap. That is, to reach $350B, they would have to do 3.7x. With the FOMC and the market overheating, no, it is impossible.
Written by Percival
