$BTC
1. At 10:30, the Nasdaq fell 705 points, a drop of 2.7%.
Gold closed up 0.56% on January 26 at $2,777/ounce, a two-month high.
Safe-haven assets: gold, silver, BTC
The AI sector of the world's largest US company by market value fell 16%
The black swan of the US technology AI sector, the US stock market fell across the board
Many people don't know what Nvidia's 16% drop means, which is equivalent to the drop in the market value of Ethereum, just like the price of Pancakes and Onions fell from 100,000 to 60,000 in one day, a well-deserved black swan.
The instigator, Deepseek, has an impact on American AI technology. It only takes 5.5 million US dollars to train a 98% chatgpt. The US needs to invest tens of billions of US dollars, and the narrative of 500 billion US dollars to build the AI wave has become a bubble. 2. Two knives hanging over the US stock market, the technology bubble and the military bubble, are both threatened. Since March 2009, the US stock market has experienced a 15-year bull market. Will the US stock market collapse? This is something I never thought about before. After Nvidia plunged 16% today, I started to think about it. It was mainly because Nvidia, the leader in technology and the company with the largest market value in the world, plunged. The black swan made me have to think about whether the 15-year bull market in the US stock market will collapse. 3. The author of my financial thinking enlightenment book "Rich Dad Poor Dad" tweeted that the US stock market will usher in the strongest crash in history in February 2025, which once again touched my thinking. I also prefer some language about the collapse of the US stock market. It is hard to say when it will happen. The avalanche may not be caused by a financial crisis, but perhaps just an economic bubble blown up by an inconspicuous Chinese company.
The collapse of the US stock market as a safe-haven asset will inevitably drive a sharp rise in the big cake, so the thinking is still the same, not to find where to short, but where to buy the bottom. 110,000 is definitely not the top!
4. Pie chart four, the triangle wedge fell below, this is the real market situation. According to the rules of the pattern, we should be bearish. However, in this situation, I still don’t have the courage to do short orders. If I really want to do short orders, I will go back to the bottom of the wedge at 104000-105000 and then go short. Then it will strongly break through 104000-105000 and finally give up the idea of shorting. The purple rectangle is the support range of the price. The support range here has been broken. There is a high probability that it will not fall back to 104000-105000, which means that the decline has not stopped and it will continue to fall. Then I still have to continue looking for a position to buy the bottom.