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Bitcoin's rise last night was much stronger than expected, directly reaching 105865. This is still a 1-hour level rise; we'll see if this 1-hour level rise extends further upwards. The overall 4-hour level rise has not ended, and even if a short-term 1-hour level pullback occurs, there is no need to panic; the pullback is an opportunity to add positions.

Relative to Bitcoin, Ethereum is somewhat weaker. For those familiar with Ethereum's movements, weakness actually represents more opportunities. For example, on November 5, 2024, Bitcoin had already broken 70000 while Ethereum was still hovering around 2400, but within a short month, it surged directly from 2400 to 4100, achieving a 70% increase. So there is no need to be overly anxious; Ethereum breaking through 4100 to reach 4800 is only a matter of time.

On the 20th, which is the day after tomorrow, Trump will announce his inauguration. Will there be a big surge that day? From the perspective of major news, the chances of a pump are still high. For instance, the Trump meme coin that just launched today has surged 100 times in less than a day, which is quite terrifying. Logically, there will be another round of hype on the 20th.

BTC

Due to the rapid changes in the market, the article can only make predictions based on the market changes at the moment of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest market changes; this is merely for reference.

1H:

At the 1-hour level, it is currently uncertain whether this 1-hour level rebound will continue to extend upwards. As shown in the figure above, if the blue route is taken, then Bitcoin should continue to rise and reach the range of 105000~108000, followed by a 1-hour level pullback, and then begin the third 1-hour level rise to continue creating historical highs.

If the yellow route is taken, then a 1-hour level pullback has already begun. This pullback is expected to normal retrace to around 100000, but considering the slow movement before the weekend, it may slowly retrace to around 98000, before starting the third 1-hour level rise to break historical highs.

Regardless of whether the blue route or the yellow route is taken, the overall 4-hour level rise has not ended; the current pullback is merely a pullback midway through the rise. To further distinguish between the two trends, we need to observe the strength of the short-term 15-minute level rebound.

15M:

At the 15-minute level, the rebound from 97335 to 105865 is not divergent, so after the 15-minute level pullback here, there should be another 15-minute level rebound to break 105865 to conclude this 1-hour level rise. As indicated by the green arrow in the figure above, only after another rebound should a 1-hour level pullback begin.

Of course, if Bitcoin's current 15-minute level rebound cannot exceed 105865, then it is seen as selling, and we will look for a 1-hour level pullback to retest around 100000 or the 98000~100000 range.

Currently, a 15-minute level rebound is in progress and should not be over yet; first, we will see if it breaks 104500.

ETH

Ethereum is currently experiencing a 15-minute level pullback starting from 3525, as it has already fallen back into the previous 15-minute level center. Therefore, Ethereum here tends to have started a 1-hour level pullback. The first 15-minute level decline has already occurred, and we should currently be in the second 15-minute level rebound, focusing on 3350 or the 3350~3400 range; afterwards, there should be a third 15-minute level decline. If the trend is complex, it may follow the pattern of five moves as shown in the upper figure.

Ethereum's 1-hour level pullback, in a weak scenario, may still retest 3150 or 3050.

The next 1-hour level surge may see Ethereum continue to push towards 3700 or higher.

Trend direction

Weekly level: Direction upwards, currently undergoing a new weekly level rise, with an overall target above 150000.

Daily level: Direction upwards, with expectations for the daily level rise to reach 120000 and breaking through will look towards 150000.

4-hour level: Direction upwards, looking for a new 4-hour level rebound, with a high probability of breaking 108000.

1-hour level: Direction upwards, the first 1-hour level rise may still extend upwards; if it doesn't go up, a 1-hour pullback could present an opportunity rather than a crisis.

15-minute level: Direction upwards, observing the strength of the 15-minute level rise.