With the arrival of 2025, at the turning point of new and old, we will all summarize the past and look to the future.
Looking back at the past of the crypto industry, we can find an interesting phenomenon: every four years there is an 'altcoin season'. During this period, you will find that everything in the industry is rising. You might even hear that your alcoholic uncle made a fortune buying some animal-themed meme tokens, even while intoxicated.
By 2025, the real altcoin season has yet to fully arrive. While no one can predict how crazy this altcoin season will be, I want to remind everyone that the trend of altcoin markets is generally rapid and can suddenly come to an end. Once it crashes, the decline may not just be -99.99%, but could even be a complete collapse.
However, before that, everyone was immersed in various atmospheres of prosperity and entertainment. So, next, let’s review the previous altcoin seasons to see how they developed and whether we can draw some valuable lessons from them.
01
2012-2013 Altcoin Season: Early Enthusiastic Investors
Market capitalization peaked at $15 billion
At that time, people proposed the idea of improving the transaction speed of Bitcoin, believing that reducing block time could accelerate transactions, which was seen as a far-reaching innovation at the time.
02
2017 Altcoin Season: The ICO Frenzy and the Rise of Ethereum
Market capitalization peaked at $800 billion
03
2021 Altcoin Season: DeFi, NFT, and Memecoin
Market capitalization peaked at $3 trillion
04
Key Lessons
1) Take profits timely: The market changes rapidly, and you are likely to feel greed. If you find yourself saying, 'I really wish I could buy 2x of some Token', then what you should probably do is sell half of your position and contentedly take your profits. It doesn't matter whether you sell Bitcoin, Ethereum, or stablecoins; the key is not to be greedy.
2) The hype cycle is repetitive: Each round of altcoin season has a narrative theme: Bitcoin forks, ICOs, DeFi, NFTs, or Memecoins. If you find a theme, it’s best to stick with it because the knowledge you accumulate in that field tends to disappear quickly by the end of the cycle. Instead of jumping around, focus on a specific area and reap the ultimate victory.
3) Risk management is crucial: The returns can be substantial, but everyone's situation is different. You are not the same as me, and I am not the same as my neighbor. Create a suitable plan for yourself and stick to it; don't keep adjusting your goals just because someone with $100,000 says, 'Ten million is not enough for retirement.'
4) Survivors will thrive: Altcoins come and go, but Bitcoin and Ethereum dominate each cycle. If a project has been around for so long, its risk of going to zero is relatively low. If Solana can find practical applications beyond Pump.fun by 2025, it may also reach this level.
Have we learned anything from Ponzi schemes? Actually, no. From what we see, people still do not understand the concept of 'Not Your Keys, Not Your Coins.' You can buy crypto stocks or other crypto leveraged asset investments through brokerage firms, but understand that if you hold these stocks or crypto ETFs, you do not actually own any cryptocurrency. You will never know how these companies or projects will handle the assets you invested.
In a bull market, we are often criticized for not participating in the hype of the latest Memecoin. Although these speculative behaviors seem very hot right now, if you observe closely, you will find that those who stick to their strategies and remain calm are gradually accumulating wealth.
In contrast, those speculators who only think about getting rich quickly through '10x returns', while they may attract market attention in the short term, their capital and strategies cannot be compared to those anonymous whales who continuously invest steadily each month and accumulate wealth. These whales usually have a more solid financial foundation and clearer long-term planning. Ultimately, the market performance and data will prove what kind of strategy is the key to success.
Finally, I wish everyone good luck in 2025.
Original Title: History of Black Out Drunk Nonsense Alt Seasons
Original Link: https://bowtiedbull.io/p/history-of-black-out-drunk-nonsense?utm_source=%2Finbox&utm_medium=reader2
Original Author: BowTied Bull
Translated by: Blockchain in Plain Language
