#币安MegadropSOLV #加密市场回调 #本轮牛市周期预期 #微策略持续增持BTC #币安Alpha上新 $BTC $ETH

Good morning, brothers. A black swan came last night.

It brought the cryptocurrency market down. Will the market be bearish next?

The US job vacancy data released last night far exceeded expectations. This shows that companies have a great demand for recruitment. The labor market has not cooled down. Therefore, the market has lowered its expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut. Now the expectations are very pessimistic: no interest rate cut before July next year. This is what caused the cryptocurrency market to collapse. Binance's 4-hour transaction volume was the largest in 2 months, exceeding 1.2 billion US dollars. The transaction volume was much larger than when it fell to $91,000 two weeks ago. When we doubt the direction, we can only study the on-chain data more and study how big capital operates. From the on-chain data, after yesterday's big drop: (1) BTC flowed out of the exchange, mainly 7,000 BTC flowed out of the exchange, indicating that big investors are still buying at the bottom. (2) Stablecoins did not flow out and remained strong. With such a large transaction volume and on-chain data, it feels like the price has fallen enough. Next, let's look at Friday's non-farm payrolls and employment rate. If it is positive (probability 40%), it will rebound to 100,000 soon. If it is negative (60%), it may fall to $95,000.

Then around the time Trump took office, it began to rebound and return to its high point