$BTC 【BTC Market Analysis This Week】1/6
Review of Last Week's Market: On December 30th, the market broke below the 92500 daily MA60 and did not hold. The market rebounded at 91500, rising with a fluctuating upward trend to the highest point near 99000 on January 4th. After the non-farm payroll data was released on December 6th, the market fluctuated and rose within the 97500-99000 range. Therefore: the market's breakthrough of the historical resistance level of 99500 before the non-farm payroll made it impossible to reach 102500-104000, mainly because the time has been exhausted by the fluctuating rise. December 6th was the point where the market hit bottom and rebounded (90500), so the break of 92500 on December 30th, with the lowest point being 91500, was the best entry opportunity. If the market does not break below 90500, with Trump taking office on January 20th, the entire bull market has not ended.
Market Analysis This Week
Weekly Chart: Last week's market was supported by MA10 (91500), and this week MA10 support is at 95600. Overall, the volume shows a decreasing bullish pattern, KDJ has a dead cross (62), and the MACD golden cross shows decreasing bullish momentum, with the fast line DIF still in a high horizontal pattern.
Summary: Bearish on the weekly chart.
Daily Chart: The Bollinger upper middle band has shifted downward, with upper resistance at 100900 and lower band shifting upward. KDJ has touched the top, the MACD golden cross has broken above 0, and the volume shows decreasing bullish momentum. The daily MA60 support is at 95500.
Summary: Although the MACD golden cross has broken above 0, the Bollinger upper band is moving down, KDJ has touched the top, and volume is decreasing bullishly, the market is bearish. However, the Bollinger lower band is shifting upward, and this lower band is near 92500, which is close to the strong support of 92500 from last week. Additionally, the MA60 support is at 95500, which is the same as the weekly MA10 support of 95600. Therefore: the market's previous trend is fluctuating in the range of 95600-100900, and there is a high probability that the non-farm payroll will rebound near 92500 again.
Historical K-line Trend: Upper resistance at 100000, 102700, 104000. Monthly cycle shows lower support at 92700-95000.
Major Data: 1/10 Non-Farm Payroll, 1/15 CPI Year-on-Year, 1/20 Trump Takes Office.
Overall Market Summary:
The market is likely to fluctuate at the strong resistance level of 102700, with previous movements fluctuating in the range of 95600-102700, but ultimately falling to around 92500, which means a significant correction will occur on the day the non-farm data is released. Additionally, pay attention to the 1/15 CPI year-on-year, which is likely to create a short inducement situation. This is merely a short-term correction after the non-farm rally, coinciding with the initiation of the bull market with Trump's inauguration on 1/20.
Operation: Focus on short positions at high levels initially, and mainly bottom-fishing on the non-farm data release day.