Explore whether XRP's price can surge by 711% to reach $20 before January 2025. Also, examine how Ripple ETF might influence Ripple's short-term price.

Ripple (XRP) has been trading within a narrow range for four weeks since reaching its 2024 high of $2.90 on December 3. This pullback and sideways movement bear a resemblance to the consolidation phase observed in 2017. If history follows a similar pattern, XRP's price could potentially climb to $20 by January 31, 2025, and the introduction of a Ripple ETF might influence its short-term trajectory.

Can XRP Price Reach $20 Before January 31?

In Q2 2017, XRP experienced a staggering 1,200% surge, followed by a 24-day consolidation phase. This behavior closely mirrors the current market dynamics. Recently, Ripple bulls drove a 600% rally, which transitioned into a 28-day consolidation that concluded with a 12% uptick on January 1. Given these parallels, it’s plausible that XRP could embark on another parabolic rise. If the current pattern mirrors 2017’s movement, the token might achieve a 711% rally, pushing its price to $20 within three weeks, likely by January 31.

The chart below illustrates how XRP could replicate its 2017 trajectory and hit this target.

Source: TrandingView

Although history offers a valuable reference, the XRP ETF might serve as the ideal catalyst needed to ignite such a significant rally.

Spot Ripple ETF: A Bullish Catalyst for Ripple

According to Polymarket data, there are two polls regarding a spot Ripple ETF approval. The first one speculates on an XRP ETF approval by July 31, 2025 and the other with the same speculation but by the end of 2025.

The latter shows there’s a 70% chance that a spot Ripple ETF will be approved by the end of 2025.

Source: Polymarket.com

Regardless of whether an ETF is approved, let’s look at the short-term outlook of XRP price using technical analysis and forecast key support, resistance levels & potential targets for January 2025.

XRP Technical Analysis & Price Targets

Over the past five weeks, XRP's price movement has displayed the formation of a bull flag. This technical pattern is a bullish continuation setup characterized by a steep parabolic rally, known as the flagpole, followed by consolidation within a parallel channel, referred to as the flag.

The target for this pattern is calculated by adding the height of the flag to the breakout point. Here, the flag’s height measures 108%, which, when added to the breakout point, indicates an optimistic target of approximately $4. However, applying this measurement to the bottom of the flag yields a more conservative target of $3.42.

Source: TrandingView

Although XRP has demonstrated resilience in recent weeks, a drop in Bitcoin's price below the critical $90,000 support level could spark a sell-off across the cryptocurrency market. Therefore, investors should closely monitor BTC's price movements.

If XRP loses its $2 support level, it could lead to significant downside pressure, triggering a 25% decline to approximately $1.47.

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