With the end of the Christmas holidays in Europe and the United States, the temporary liquidity decline at the end of the year is coming to an end, and liquidity is gradually improving. The buying in the cryptocurrency market is starting to recover. Although Bitcoin fell to 93,000 USD during the Christmas holiday, it is now close to stabilizing overall, rising from 94k to 96k, showing a small upward trend.
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It is expected that Bitcoin may fluctuate between 94K and 99K, which is a normal rebound. Everyone should be patient and wait for it to break through. If you bought Bitcoin at a low price before, when it reaches the 99K position, you may consider selling a portion and waiting for new buying opportunities. There are still quite a few bullish people in the market now.
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Long-term outlook
The market is currently experiencing short-term fluctuations and corrections. Some profit-taking from high positions at the end of the year will occur, and the market needs time to digest the Federal Reserve's potential hawkish shift and the expected reduction in rate cuts early next year. In the short term, there is a lack of new driving forces, and prices may fluctuate between 90,000 and 105,000 USD.
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The current situation is due to significant changes in macro expectations leading to a market turnaround. In fact, it was the same on December 18 of last year, when the dot plot and speeches after the Federal Reserve meeting directly shifted the first rate cut expectation to June. For altcoin investors and Bitcoin investors, the situation is very similar to the macro environment in March 2024 (the first rate cut expectation was postponed to six months later). This is why, after the Federal Reserve meeting on the 18th, altcoins fell by 30% and Bitcoin dropped by 10%.
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After waiting for the consolidation phase to end, and once capital re-enters and negative news is gradually digested, the market is expected to welcome a new round of increases in the first quarter of the first half of the year!
As for the second half of 2025, we will see then. If the American economy does not collapse, it is highly likely that the fourth quarter market will peak. The current macro environment is different, and the top price should not reach as high as 200k or even 300k as various market opinions suggest. It is expected that the Bitcoin price may break through the 120,000 USD mark during this phase, and in an optimistic scenario, it may even reach 150,000 to 200,000 USD.
Throughout historical cycles, Bitcoin bull markets usually enter a correction phase about 15 to 18 months after halving. This also means that the market is likely to enter a correction phase after reaching new highs in the middle of the year or in the second half of the year. The bullish trend will continue in the first half of the year, but after mid-year and in the third quarter, one must be cautious of the risk of a peak and correction, and seize the right timing to exit!
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During the period of Bitcoin's fluctuating market, it can be quite torturous because it is difficult to directly welcome a big bull market in a short time. At this time, do not be easily washed out of the market. If you are good at using leverage, you can increase your holdings during a certain rebound. The rest is to wait patiently. The market is just starting, and holding onto your coins patiently is the right path. Do not blindly operate or switch positions, as repeatedly cutting losses will only reduce your holdings.#比特币BTC 
