#比特币

Next week, the first significant week of this important year. The most expensive phrase in the world comes from the Federal Reserve. Good afternoon！

Federal Reserve：

Monday 22:30, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook will give a speech;

Thursday 03:00, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the December monetary policy meeting;

Thursday 22:00, 2026 FOMC voting member and Philadelphia Fed President Harker will give a speech;

Friday 01:40, 2027 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin will give a speech;

Friday 02:30, 2025 FOMC voting member and Kansas Fed President Schmidt will speak on the economic and monetary policy outlook.

Next week, there will be several speeches from Federal Reserve officials, and the minutes of the December FOMC meeting will reveal more clues about the future policy path, especially regarding whether the Federal Reserve is truly shifting to a hawkish stance. At the December meeting, officials predicted only two rate cuts in 2025, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that further adjustments would depend on the trajectory of inflation. Although price pressures have significantly eased since 2022, progress towards the Federal Reserve's 2% target has been inconsistent in recent months. The inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve rose 2.4% year-on-year in November, consistent with the level in June.

Considering that the U.S. economy remains resilient, this may force the Federal Reserve to adopt a more cautious stance on future rate cuts, which is usually favorable for the dollar.

Of course, next week's market will also depend on the non-farm payrolls report; if the non-farm data comes in below expectations, it may increase expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which would be bullish for gold. Conversely, strong labor market data could reinforce the Federal Reserve's cautious stance, thus limiting the likelihood of aggressive easing policies. This would push up U.S. Treasury yields, strengthen the dollar, and create downward pressure on gold.