Abandon illusions, prepare for battle

Encrypted insights, butchering the ox 12-31

One Key focus on global financial data and events:

(1) On January 29, 2025, the probability of no interest rate cut today is 88.8% (risk to be noted in late January)

(2) Geopolitics: Stable (Today's gold price 2612.5U)

(3) USD/JPY exchange rate: 156.85 (risk of interest rate hike at the end of January)

(4) Pre-market crypto stocks: mstr 3.5%, cb 1.22%

(5) Non-farm payroll data is about to arrive

Two On-chain data and market sentiment:

(1) Market sentiment analysis: 64, Google search trend 29

(2) ETF dynamics: Yesterday BTC net outflow of 4430; ETH net outflow of -16,500

(3) Mining data analysis: 878.74 eh/s, transaction fee 4.39, gas: 3, S19 shutdown coin price: 63788-92324U

(4) Today's BTC holding weighted funding rate: 0.001% (normal)

(5) BTC market cap share 56.7%

(6) Today's volatility main logic review: Institutional ETF offloading

(7) Today's trading mindset: Pursue conscience, nothing outside the heart, go with the flow, do not be swayed by price fluctuations!

Today's trading strategy: Buy on expectations, sell on facts

Recent potential positive factors

1. FTX compensation funds entering the market (effective January 3)

2. Liquidity recovery trend after New Year's Day

3. Positive after options settlement

Recent potential negative factors

1. Japan's next interest rate hike backstab (January/March)

2. US pauses interest rate cuts (January)

3. Uncertainty before non-farm payroll data

The above content is for information sharing only,

not constituting any investment advice!

Investment has risks, proceed with caution!

#MicroStrategy增持BTC #2025比特币价格预测