January 2, 2025
[I] Fundamental analysis
Crypto insider, butchering the cow 1/1
I Focus on global financial data and events:
(1) January 29, 25, the probability of no interest rate cut today is 88.8% (pay attention to risks in late January, hedge in advance)
(2) Geopolitical: The risk of a larger-scale conflict in the Middle East in 2025 is rising (today's gold price is 2633.14U)
(3) US-Japan exchange rate: 156.87 (there is a risk of interest rate hikes at the end of January, carry trading, hedge in advance)
(4) Non-agricultural data is coming on Friday (uncertainty risk)
II On-chain data and market sentiment:
(1) Market sentiment analysis: 70 (up 4 from yesterday), BTC funding rate 0.01%, Google search trend 29
(2) ETF dynamics: BTC resumed inflow of 57.15 on Tuesday; ETH resumed net inflow of 10,700 (depending on the net inflow on Thursday, adjusting the strategy)
(3) Mining data analysis: 878.74eh/s, handling fee 4.39 gas:3 S19 shutdown coin price: 63788-92324U
(5) BTC market value accounts for 56.19% (down 0.6% from yesterday), ETH market value accounts for 12.25%, and the altcoin rebounded and followed the rise;
(6) Review of the main logic of today's fluctuations: Reversal after New Year's Day, whether it is really a change in the market will be confirmed after the opening of the US stock market in the evening
(7) Take profit 97500U, stop loss 94789 (depending on the opening of the US stock market)
(8) Trading philosophy: Follow your conscience, butcher an ox, follow the trend, and don’t be tempted by the rise and fall of the currency price!
Today's trading technique: plan before you act. Calm down before trading, light incense, sit quietly for 15 minutes to think about trading strategies, drink tea until your mind is clear, write the trading plan in your mind into a document, send it to CHATGPT, and apply Bayes' theorem to analyze the probability of winning
Recent potential positives
1. FTX compensation funds enter the market (effective on January 3, 16 billion U)
2. Liquidity recovery after New Year's Day (institutions start new fiscal year layout)
3. Microstrategy continues to resume coin purchases after the holiday (19,400 BTC were purchased last week)
Recent potential negatives
1. Japan's next interest rate hike backstab (January/March)
2. The United States suspends interest rate cuts (January)
3. Uncertainty before non-agricultural data
Small order test risk