Bitcoin experienced a rise followed by a fall this week, oscillating around the $96,500 level before the weekend. The Trading View error triggered a black swan event, showing Bitcoin dominance plunging to 0%, leading to massive liquidations of long positions. Reuters revealed that President-elect Donald Trump may unveil a cryptocurrency executive order on January 20, 2025. Later on Friday (December 27), the largest Bitcoin options contracts in history will expire.
Trading View Bitcoin dominance 'error' plummets to 0%.
Cryptocurrency community users reported an anomaly in Trading View's Bitcoin dominance chart, with Bitcoin dropping to $95,000. The error showed that Bitcoin's share of the entire cryptocurrency market cap had fallen to 0%. It is claimed that this error was the underlying reason for the subconscious trading reaction, which has now been corrected.
Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass shows that after the event, approximately $33 million in Bitcoin long positions were liquidated.
Forbes reported that AltAlpha Digital co-founder Marc P. Bernegger stated: 'The latest fluctuation in Bitcoin prices from nearly $100,000 to around $95,000 seems to be affected by the Trading View failure.'
'This error incorrectly displayed Bitcoin's dominance as 0%, causing panic among traders, which subsequently led to market turbulence. This resulted in significant liquidations, with approximately $33 million in Bitcoin long positions liquidated within a few hours,' he added.
He stated: 'There was also an untimely failure on Trading View that caused Bitcoin's dominance indicator to drop to 0%, which may have triggered additional outflows. Therefore, the panic selling caused by a low liquidity environment due to a technical error, combined with a relatively proactive strategic profit-taking a year later and a significant institutional shift of $338 million in Bitcoin ETF outflows before Christmas, is likely the catalyst for the Bitcoin price decline over the past 24 hours.'
Reuters: Trump may launch a cryptocurrency executive order on January 20.
Reuters reported this month that Trump plans to issue a series of executive orders and directives on his first day in office on January 20, covering various areas including immigration and energy. 'They hope to issue these executive orders within the first 100 days of Trump's administration, with at least one order expected to be released on January 20, 2025,' said insiders.
Officials in the cryptocurrency industry stated that Trump is pushing his team to initiate the promised cryptocurrency policy reform through executive orders upon his inauguration next month to help mainstream digital currencies.
Trump will be sworn in on January 20, 2025, and Reuters disclosed that he might issue executive orders on his first day in office. The 'U.S. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve' executive order drafted by the Satoshi Action Fund and the Bitcoin Policy Institute proposes creating a Bitcoin strategic reserve under the U.S. Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF), categorizing Bitcoin as a permanent national asset management tool to consolidate America's future financial dominance. The order must be signed before Trump takes office on January 20, 2025, to officially take effect.
Texas and Ohio have submitted Bitcoin strategic bills proposing the creation of a Bitcoin reserve fund in the state treasury and authorizing the state treasurer to flexibly invest in Bitcoin, but without mandatory requirements. The bill further mentions that Bitcoin can serve as a tool to protect tax funds and enhance state finances under the depreciation of the dollar.
The market focuses on the spreading Trump effect, wondering whether countries like China and Russia will join the ranks of Bitcoin strategic reserves. Forbes' 2025 outlook predicts that a major country in the G7 or BRICS alliance will establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve, anticipating a stablecoin market cap exceeding $400 billion.
The decentralized finance (DeFi) project World Liberty Financial (WLFI) supported by the Trump family has accumulated a significant amount of cryptocurrency through major wallets, including $30 million in ETH, $10 million in cbBTC, $2 million in LINK, $1.91 million in AAVE, $750,000 in ENA, and $250,000 in ONDO.
The largest Bitcoin options contracts in history will expire.
QCP pointed out that after experiencing a washout last week, Bitcoin's spot price continues to maintain sideways fluctuations as the holiday approaches. Although the market seems calm this week, all eyes are on the large-scale options expiration event coming on Friday. Nearly $20 billion in nominal value of Bitcoin and Ethereum options will expire.
It should be noted that this figure accounts for nearly 50% of the total options open interest at Deribit. After the options expiration, it is very likely that we will see the typical end-of-the-quarter volatility selling phenomenon reappear, especially if Bitcoin's spot price continues to fluctuate within this range and the options sellers continue to roll their short positions. Unlike those options sellers who have to wait for the options expiration to release collateral, call options buyers may have already rolled a significant portion of their positions in advance.
According to information released by Deribit's CEO Luuk Strijers, on Friday, $14 billion worth of Bitcoin options will expire. He noted that the ratio of put options to call options for this expiration is 0.69, meaning for every 10 call options, there are 7 put options. This indicates a certain level of bearish sentiment in the market.
At the same time, the number of contracts expiring (146,000) is also substantial, double the number of contracts expiring in March 2025 (73,000). Strijers further explained that these expiring contracts account for 44% of the total outstanding Bitcoin options, which amounts to $32 billion. Deribit expects that over $4 billion of contracts will expire in execution, which will undoubtedly trigger significant trading activity.
Deribit's volatility index (DVOL) has recently fluctuated sharply. Strijers pointed out that this means traders still have significant disagreements about the future direction of the market. He emphasized: 'The previously dominant bullish momentum is weakening, and the market is currently in a high-leverage upward state. If a significant drop occurs, it may trigger a rapid backlash. All eyes will be focused on the upcoming options expiration date, as it could set the tone for the market's direction in 2025.'
Bitcoin price prediction for 2025.
Pantera Capital CEO Dan Morehead: Will reach $117,000 by August 2025.
Forbes: The total market value of cryptocurrencies will exceed $8 trillion.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes: Will reach $250,000 by the end of 2025.
Bitwise Asset Management: Will reach $200,000 or higher by the end of 2025.
Fundstrat Global Advisors Research Head Tom Lee: Bitcoin will surge to $250,000 in 2025.
(Rich Dad Poor Dad) author Kiyosaki: Target price of $350,000 by 2025.
Standard Chartered: There is a chance to double to $200,000 by 2025.
VanEck: A drop of about 30% in early 2025, followed by consolidation in the summer, reaching $180,000 by the end of the year.
Bitcoin technical analysis
Economies.com stated that Bitcoin is trading at the key support level of $95,195 and has so far struggled to break through, waiting for a negative motive that could help drive price confirmation and then resume a bearish trend with targets of $91,000, followed by $87,055 as the next major station.
The bearish wave suggested by the bearish channel organization notes that a breakout above $98,600 will halt the bearish trend and drive the price to establish a bullish wave, starting with a target of accessing the $105,070 area.
'The expected trading range on Friday is between the support level of $91,000 and the resistance level of $96,000.'
'The trend forecast is bearish.'
