Initial claims for unemployment insurance were lower than expected.

On the other hand, the U.S. Department of Labor announced the latest data last night (26th) showing that for the week ending December 21st, initial claims for unemployment benefits in the U.S., seasonally adjusted, fell to 219,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week, and lower than the market expectation of 224,000, marking the lowest level in nearly a month. This indicates that although the labor market is cooling, companies are still avoiding a large-scale wave of layoffs, suggesting that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may not further cut interest rates.

At the same time, the overall unemployment rate in the U.S. is currently 4.2%. Based on data from the past decade, while the labor market is showing signs of weakness, the unemployment situation remains relatively mild, with no signs of deterioration. Jefferies economist Thomas Simons also stated:

Although the hiring pace has slowed, the rate of layoffs and firings has not accelerated, reflecting that companies are placing more emphasis on retaining scarce labor.

The probability of the Fed pausing interest rate cuts in January is as high as 91.4%.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the current market expects the Federal Reserve to pause its interest rate cuts in January next year, maintaining the federal funds rate in the current range of 4.25% to 4.5% with a probability of 91.4%, consistent with predictions from a week ago.

Economists: The risk of a U.S. economic recession has decreased.

After the employment data was released last night, the U.S. stock market and Bitcoin did not show significant reactions.

The U.S. Department of Labor announced the latest data last night (26th) showing that for the week ending December 21st, initial claims for unemployment benefits in the U.S., seasonally adjusted, fell to the lowest level in nearly a month, indicating that although the labor market is cooling, companies are still avoiding a large-scale wave of layoffs, suggesting that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may not further cut interest rates.

Bitcoin experienced a rapid decline yesterday afternoon, dropping $3,000 from $98,500, causing many bulls to stop-loss and exit. It is currently oscillating slightly above $95,000, having broken through $96,000 multiple times but quickly falling back, with no clear trend yet. #“圣诞老人行情”再现 #2025加密趋势预测 #比特币市场波动观察