In November 2023, Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) was sentenced to 25 years in prison for seven charges, including fraud and misappropriation of funds. However, due to his close ties with the political sphere, rumors about his potential pardon continue to circulate.
As one of the largest donors to the Democratic Party, SBF's close relationships with key political figures, especially Biden, have led many to question whether his political influence could play a role in securing a pardon. Musk stated on X that he would be 'shocked' if U.S. President Joe Biden did not grant a pardon to the infamous SBF.
This statement aligns with the trend in probability forecasts on potential pardons. After the news broke, the predicted probability of SBF being pardoned on the PolyMarket platform surged from 4% to 13%, currently stabilizing at 8%, indicating that people increasingly believe SBF's connections with political elites might influence his fate.
SBF was regarded as a leading figure in the cryptocurrency industry at his peak. He founded FTX in 2019 and quickly built it into one of the largest exchanges in the world. He established a public image as a tech innovator and was also dedicated to social causes, earning widespread recognition outside the cryptocurrency circle.
SBF donated over $5 million to Biden and the Democratic Party during the 2020 election. However, the collapse of FTX revealed an $8 billion hole in customer funds, shocking the financial world. Despite SBF's conviction, there are still speculations that a presidential pardon might help the Biden administration move past this scandal.
Meanwhile, the chances of Biden pardoning Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht are currently at 10%. Trump promised that if elected president, he would pardon Ulbricht, who was sentenced to life in prison in 2015 for multiple charges including drug trafficking and money laundering.
Some liberals and cryptocurrency advocates view Ulbricht as a symbol of free trade and express dissatisfaction with his harsh sentencing. Opponents, however, link Silk Road to drug-related deaths and accuse Ulbricht of orchestrating murders to maintain his trading platform.
💬 Do you think SBF will be pardoned? What will happen to Ulbricht? What do you think about the influence of financial tycoons on politics?
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