Yesterday's recap of the mainstream market's fluctuation range was generally accurate. Currently, there is no volume supporting the downward trend. The mainstream panic has significantly decreased, and selling pressure has also reduced a lot. However, in the past 24 hours, BTC has not escaped this round of downward channel; at this point, one should be cautious as the mainstream may struggle to fall further, but slight declines could trigger significant drops in altcoins, especially in recent volatile coins. I will explain the rationale at the end of my article. Note that this video is merely a personal recap and does not constitute any investment advice. Please give a follow, and feel free to share it with your friends; if you do, let me know via private message to join the fan group.
From the news perspective, Ohio Republican Senator Bernie Moreno will join the Senate Banking Committee, which oversees the U.S. SEC and influences cryptocurrency legislation. Moreno has received funding from cryptocurrency supporters and is expected to push related legislation. MSTR founder Michael Saylor released BTCTracker information, suggesting the company may increase its BTC holdings.
Let’s start with the conclusion, followed by technical analysis:
Regarding BTC: Expected to fluctuate within the range of 94000-98000. Information from various sources indicates that panic sentiment is dissipating. Since the position of 87500 is predicted as the first bottom before the 27th, below 95000, the lower it goes, the safer it is to build positions. After December 27, it may be difficult to see positions below 90000 in the short term. Generally, a sharp decline in bull markets lasts 7-11 days, and doing the math, we are about there.
Regarding BNB: Expected to consolidate between 650-690, with strong rebounds that are noteworthy. This may be related to the increase in recent news from CZ. If there is an airdrop during the Christmas days, it could create its own market trend, even breaking above 700.
Regarding ETH: Expected to fluctuate around 3200-3500, following BTC closely and within a downward channel, the likelihood of a sharp drop has significantly decreased.
Regarding stablecoins: Currently, selling pressure continues to decrease, and the volatility is now close to that of BTC, with the probability of a significant drop also reduced. However, to achieve a significant rise, someone still needs to call it out.
Next is the technical analysis:
1. From BTC's K-line, the 4-hour chart is weak with low trading volume. The breakout attempt from 12 PM to 4 PM was unsuccessful. The daily MACD remains unfavorable with no signs of reversal, but at least the DIF and DEA lines on the 4-hour chart have intersected multiple times. The overall trend is still within this round of downward channel, and the next 24 hours are likely to primarily see a continued downward slide or sideways movement, waiting for a new direction in the battle between bulls and bears. To break out in a bullish direction, there must be at least two consecutive strong 4-hour candles breaking out of the current channel.
2. Greed and Fear Index observation: Currently at 70, indicating greed, down 3 from yesterday. It may soon enter a neutral zone, and the mainstream market's panic sentiment has been greatly released.
3. BTC perpetual contract funding rate is 0.0079%, ETH is 0.052%. BTC has rebounded compared to yesterday, while ETH remains stable. During the consolidation process, bulls are gradually building strength to stabilize prices.
4. Observation of the maximum pain point for options in the next three months: The next two days are expected to remain between 96000-100000, which has little impact on the currency value. December 27 is approaching, and going long at this time carries higher risks; proceed with caution.
5. Spot ETFS is closed on Sundays; we will observe tonight and discuss in the group after reviewing the market.
6. Looking at the RSI (Relative Strength Index), BTC has returned to neutral on a weekly basis and back to neutral over 24 hours. Meanwhile, ETH has returned to neutral on a weekly basis but has dropped to a weak position over 24 hours; both are in a low selling pressure range.
7. From the peak escape index, it is currently positioned in the lower middle, which indirectly indicates that the current position is not too high.
8. BTC holding index is currently declining to 1.36, the lowest value in a month. Minor spot hoarding and buying on dips seem reasonable now.
Overall judgment: Although BTC is in a short-term pullback, its MVRV score and fundamentals indicate long-term potential for growth. As long as one holds mainstream spot assets, there is no need to panic; more pullbacks present good opportunities to accumulate, and when the price rises, those accumulated can be sold. January is approaching, and there will be good performances to watch. Lastly, remember to leave yourself some room when trading; don’t go all in like at a casino; most earnings come from steadily growing spot assets. If you’ve seen so many of my updates without liking them, please give one a like.