BTC has been trading sideways for the past two days, and has basically fluctuated within yesterday's forecast range. The trend has continued to fall during the consolidation. It is currently in the stage of consolidation to consolidate the previous surge. It is waiting for more capital inflows and more favorable information to reach new heights. We also need to observe the US stock market tonight. If the US stock market cannot stand firm tonight, it will have to follow the plunge. What are the recent impacts of various related indicators and the relationship between long and short positions on the trend? Let's review it. This video is only for personal review and does not constitute any investment advice. #2025比特币价格预测

In terms of news, historical data shows that Ethereum performed strongly in the first quarter of the new year after the US election and Bitcoin halving. Spot Ethereum ETF funds have strong inflows, and net inflows are expected to exceed US$50 billion in 2025. The new government may introduce more friendly crypto policies, but the macro environment may suppress Ethereum's performance. The Japanese Financial Services Agency plans to treat crypto assets as ordinary financial assets, which represents a kind of legalization of cryptocurrencies, depending on the stability of the industry. Japan and Russia have ruled out plans to establish national Bitcoin reserves, while countries such as the United States and Brazil are actively exploring this possibility.

First, the conclusion, followed by technical analysis:

BTC: Excluding the impact of a significant drop in the US stock market tonight on BTC, the forecast fluctuates in the range of 92,000-96,000. We are waiting for opportunities amidst sideways movement and downward trends. Below 92,000, it is advisable to slightly increase holdings; we should be prepared for a drop to 80,000, as there is still room for that. The current downward trend is not that it cannot go up, but rather it lacks more capital inflow to solidify and stimulate significant positive news. Thus, we should also avoid being empty-handed.

Regarding BNB: It is expected to consolidate around 680-720. The 63rd airdrop has reached its end, and some BNB is expected to be sold, which is relatively normal. Long-term holders can consider releasing shares at high points in the coming days as a good choice.

Regarding ETH: It is expected to fluctuate around 3300-3600, with a slight upward trend during sideways movement, leaning towards the strong side in the short term.

The daily line for BTC is clearly in a descending channel, and the probability of a significant short-term correction is relatively low. We will wait for further signals.

Next is the technical analysis:

1. From the BTC candlestick chart, the 4-hour line is in a short-term downward channel, gradually declining during consolidation. The daily chart shows an overall trend approaching a composite head and shoulders model, indicating a low-volume sideways consolidation process. Logically, if it is a head and shoulders pattern, continued sideways movement can easily lead to a downward spike. If a spike occurs, it is expected not to be deep, with a high probability of a quick recovery.

2. Observing the Greed and Fear Index: It is currently at 65, which is considered greedy, down 8 from yesterday. This is a recent low value, indicating a slight decrease in overall market enthusiasm.

3. The funding rate for BTC perpetual contracts is 0.0095%, and for ETH, it is 0.0107%. BTC has rebounded compared to yesterday and is expected to return to normal levels quickly. ETH is close to yesterday's level, and the short-selling energy is average.

4. Observing the maximum pain points for options in the next three months: The next two days will be between 94,000 and 96,000, which is relatively close to the current price range and will not have a significant impact on the price.

5. The pre-market data for spot ETFs is not very good; we will wait for tonight's opening to see the specific trends.

6. From the perspective of the RSI (Relative Strength Index), it remains consistent with yesterday. BTC currently maintains a strong position on a weekly basis and a neutral stance over the last 24 hours. The same applies to ETH, which maintains neutrality on a weekly dimension and a neutral position over the last 24 hours. The selling pressure is considered normal.

7. From the peak escape index, it is currently positioned in the middle to lower range, which indirectly indicates that the current position is not too high.

8. The BTC holding index has risen to 1.29, getting closer to the holding line. Those who are eager can try with small amounts to avoid missing out.

In summary, the overall market is currently very sluggish, and the enthusiasm brought by the previous surge is fading. The market needs short-term adjustment and consolidation. At this time, it is still advisable to retain some mainstream positions while using small amounts to buy on dips to lower costs. Be careful not to get too eager with contracts and altcoins; patience is essential.