As Christmas approaches and the New Year of 2025 is around the corner, coupled with factors like Trump's inauguration and Bitcoin halving, Bitcoin may end its adjustment and re-enter an upward trajectory.
Recently, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and reduced likelihood of further cuts have led to a significant global market pullback, with Bitcoin dropping from its historical high of 108,000 to 90,000, and altcoins also experiencing severe corrections. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated that this pullback is primarily a natural clearing of leverage, and in the long term, the fundamentals of the bull market remain solid.
With Christmas approaching, the market may welcome a 'Christmas rally.' Historically, U.S. stocks tend to perform strongly in the last few trading days of the year, which in turn boosts Bitcoin and cryptocurrency market sentiment. In the past, Bitcoin has often seen significant increases during Christmas and after halving, similar to the trends in 2016 and 2020. Therefore, the expectation for Bitcoin to rise in the short term is relatively high.
The current market greed index has dropped from 90 to 70! When will the new market trend begin?
Before a bullish trend appears in the first quarter of 2025, Bitcoin may continue to fluctuate.
David Lawant, head of research at cryptocurrency brokerage FalconX, stated that recent Bitcoin price fluctuations remain the most likely scenario, especially as BTC faces the largest options expiration event in history on December 27, where a low liquidity environment may exacerbate volatility.
In the coming days, both the rise and fall of Bitcoin are highly possible. The market is volatile, so it's best to pay attention to your positions!
Looking at the overall market situation, let's take a look at the altcoin side!
After two weeks of decline, over 90% of altcoins have been halved. According to market practice, altcoins that have halved usually rebound by 30-50% after bottoming out. It is already the third day of fluctuations near the halving point. Attention can be paid to strong altcoins, like FET, which hit a low of 1.1 at the end of October, with bottoming chips concentrated below 1.3. These types of coins may have significant rebound potential.
FTT
Musk just replied to a tweet about Biden possibly pardoning the second-largest Democratic donor (with an AI photo of SBF), stating, 'I'd be shocked if that doesn't happen.' Biden will leave office on January 20, 2025, and the U.S. presidential pardon power allows for the pardon of federal criminals, but a pardon will be invalid if the pardoned person refuses to accept it.
According to official news, on December 23, influenced by Musk's speculation about 'Biden possibly pardoning SBF,' FTT temporarily rose over 5%, currently quoted at 3.23 dollars, up 18.6% within 24 hours, with trading volume increasing to 95,141,220 dollars, a rise of 136.5% compared to yesterday. The rise in FTT price is significant, but this surge is expected to be temporary, with risks of correction remaining.
DOGE
Today, Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, expressed surprise on Twitter that no issuers have applied for the Dogecoin ETF so far, believing that the worst issue is just a matter of marketing costs.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas agrees with this view, initially expecting relevant applications before Christmas, but it may have to wait until Trump or the new SEC chairman takes office. Although some analysts are cautious about the approval of the Dogecoin ETF, believing that Wall Street prefers non-meme assets, both Balchunas and Two Prime Digital Assets CEO Alexander Blume believe that the DOGE ETF will eventually come to fruition, especially with the success of the BTC ETF, prompting more financial companies to strive to launch the DOGE ETF.
Although the concentration of Dogecoin holdings in the market is high, Blume believes that the new SEC leadership may relax policies, and the DOGE ETF is likely to be approved sooner. Currently, the world's first Dogecoin-related ETP has been listed in Sweden, and Valor is optimistic that the U.S. elections may drive demand for Dogecoin investment.
If the DOGE ETF is approved in the U.S. in the future, it is expected to attract a large influx of funds, pushing the coin price to challenge the historic high of 1 dollar and possibly stimulate more institutions to apply for meme coin ETFs.
HYPE
Today, Hyperliquid (HYPE) experienced the largest pullback since its launch, with an intraday decline of up to 20.5%, hitting a low of 26 magnesium and currently rebounding to around 29.
The community's discussion focus is centered on the warning from security researcher Tay, who pointed out that multiple North Korean hacker addresses are trading on Hyperliquid, with total losses exceeding 700,000 dollars. Although HYPE has not yet faced an attack, Tay believes that North Korean hackers may be testing the system's stability through trading. He specifically mentioned that Hyperliquid's four validators are potential security weaknesses, sparking community discussion.
Additionally, Hyperliquid has a bridging contract on Arbitrum containing 2.3 billion USDC, and the contract functionality requires signatures from three validators to execute. If the majority of validators are compromised, the attacker may extract all funds and transfer them to a malicious address.
In response to Tay's warning, the community's reactions varied. Some members felt it was an exaggeration, especially after the HYPE drop, believing that Tay was 'deliberately spreading FUD.' Others argued that North Korean hackers might target any high TVL protocol, and Tay could be driven by interests, aiming to secure collaboration between Consensys and Hyperliquid.
Overall, today's events regarding Hyperliquid sparked widespread discussions, but in essence, it did not face an attack. Nevertheless, the exposure of systemic vulnerabilities and the divergent views within the community present both a challenge and a litmus test for the project.
Today's article ends here. We are currently in a bull market, with events unfolding, and we share insights daily.