1. Price Trend:
• In the short term (15 minutes and 30 minutes), the price is in a consolidation phase after a decline, and the fluctuation range is narrowing.
• The medium term (4 hours and 1 hour) shows a clear downtrend, with lower price highs.
• On the daily chart, prices are now entering a correction phase after experiencing a significant increase.
2. Moving average system:
• The short-term moving averages (such as MA7 and MA25) have diverged downward and are below the medium- and long-term moving averages (such as MA99), indicating that the overall trend is bearish.
• Moving average adhesion areas are often important pressure or support locations.
3. Volume (VOL):
• Trading volume has shrunk during the decline from recent highs, suggesting that bearish momentum has weakened.
• However, there is no sign of a rebound on large volume, suggesting that bulls are still on the sidelines.
4. MACD indicator:
• The MACD of daily and hourly lines are both below the zero axis, and the DIF and DEA are both downward, indicating that the bears are dominant.
• The short-term MACD histogram is narrowing and may enter a period of volatility.
Pressure level analysis
1. Short-term pressure level (15-minute, 30-minute, 1-hour chart):
• $97,580 (MA25): short-term moving average suppression area, if it can break through, it will further test above.
• USD 99,706: The high point of the recent decline, which is a strong short-term pressure.
• USD 101,281: It is medium-term resistance and is close to the medium-term moving average MA99.
2. Medium-term pressure level (4-hour chart):
• Around $103,600: The moving average resistance point during the decline in the 4-hour chart, and also the high area before the shock.
• $108,353: Previous high, a break above here could reverse the medium-term downtrend.
3. Long-term pressure level (daily chart):
• $111,800: The previous high on the daily chart, which needs to be reached with a large-scale rebound.
Support level analysis
1. Short-term support level (15-minute, 30-minute, 1-hour chart):
• $95,700: A short-term low, it is currently the main support and if it falls below it could lead to further weakness.
• $93,440: Near support below, close to the previous low.
2. Medium-term support level (4-hour chart):
• $86,250: Medium-term support on the 4-hour chart, a break below which could lead to greater downside.
3. Long-term support level (daily chart):
• USD 78,300: Daily MA99 long-term moving average support, representing a strong support area.
Long order opening position
1. Steady long position:
• Breakout confirmation position: around $99,700
• The current short-term pressure level. If the price breaks through this area and stabilizes (which can be confirmed by the closing of the 15-minute or 30-minute K-line), it means that the bulls are beginning to exert their strength and you can consider opening a long position.
• Stop Loss: $98,500 (break below former resistance-turned-support area).
• Target position: $103,600 (medium-term pressure level).
2. Aggressive long position:
• Support rebound position: around $95,700
• This position is a short-term support. If the price pulls back to this area without falling below it and a rebound signal appears (such as a MACD golden cross, a Yang enveloping a Yin in a Yang pattern, etc.), you can try to open a long position.
• Stop Loss: $94,500 (break below support area).
• Target location: $99,700.
Short order opening position
1. Steady opening of short positions:
• Breakout confirmation: around $95,700
• The current short-term support level. If the price falls below this area and continues to weaken (such as combined with the 15-minute or 30-minute K-line closing negatively), it means that the bears are further dominant and you can open a short position.
• Stop Loss: $97,000 (bounce back above support).
• Target: $93,440 (next support).
2. Aggressive short opening:
• Pressure drop position: around $99,700
• If the price rebounds to this position but fails to break through, and stagflation signals appear (such as shrinking trading volume, MACD high-level death cross, etc.), you can try to open a short position.
• Stop Loss: $101,000 (breakout resistance zone).
• Target location: $95,700.
Policy considerations
1. Time period coordination:
• For aggressive operations, you can refer to the 15-minute and 30-minute K-line. For prudent operations, it is recommended to combine the 1-hour or 4-hour cycle.
2. Risk Control:
• The risk of a single transaction is controlled at 1%-2% of the total funds to ensure strict implementation of stop loss.
3. Volume and pattern confirmation:
• Whether it is a long or short position, you need to wait for the key position to show volume-price coordination or clear pattern signals, such as a long lower shadow, a breakthrough of a large positive line, etc.