#市场调整後的机会？ Early this morning, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the benchmark policy rate, but hinted that the number of rate cuts in 2025 may be lower than previously expected. Both the US stock market and the cryptocurrency market plunged. The Fed's latest quarterly economic forecast shows that there may only be two rate cuts in 2025—down from four in the September forecast and lower than the pre-meeting market expectation of three. This means they will be more cautious in balancing the relationship between inflation and economic growth. The Fed's members have revised their forecasts for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and core PCE inflation for next year from the September predictions of 2.1% and 2.2% to 2.5%.
Powell described this shift as a 'new phase' of monetary policy and emphasized that after a 100 basis point rate cut in 2024, rates are now significantly closer to a neutral stance. By the close of trading that day, all three major stock indices fell, with the Dow initially down 2.59%, marking the longest single-day consecutive drop in 50 years (falling for the 10th consecutive trading day). The S&P 500 index fell 2.95%, and the Nasdaq dropped 3.56%. The dollar surged to a two-year high, and the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (also known as the VIX index and Wall Street Fear Index) soared 58% to 25, reflecting increased uncertainty among investors and heightened anxiety over future interest rates. Additionally, during the press conference, in response to an Axios reporter's question about Trump's plan to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve after taking office, Powell stated: 'We (the Federal Reserve) are not allowed to hold Bitcoin. The Federal Reserve Act specifies what we can own, and we do not wish to change the law. This is something for Congress to consider, but we do not want the Federal Reserve to change the law.'
Nevertheless, we still believe this is a normal pullback, and the bull market is still ongoing. On one hand, the inflow into US spot Bitcoin ETFs remains strong, with inflows approaching $10 billion since Trump's victory. The weekly net inflow for spot Bitcoin ETFs was $2.17 billion, marking five consecutive trading days of inflows. Among these, BlackRock's IBIT led with a net inflow of $1.51 billion, bringing its total historical net inflow to $35.88 billion, while Fidelity's ETF FBTC had a net inflow of $598 million, with a total historical net inflow of $12.31 billion. The weekly net inflow for Ethereum spot ETFs reached $855 million, setting a new historical high. BlackRock's ETHA topped the list with a net inflow of $523 million, with a total cumulative net inflow of $3.2 billion, while Fidelity's FETH followed closely with a net inflow of $259 million, with a total cumulative net inflow of $1.38 billion. Currently, the assets under management of US Bitcoin ETFs ($129.3 billion) have surpassed those of gold ETFs ($128.9 billion). On the other hand, Microstrategy and its follower companies are increasing their Bitcoin purchases. Recently, Microstrategy invested approximately $1.5 billion to acquire an additional 15,350 Bitcoins, bringing its Bitcoin holdings to a floating profit of over $19.6 billion. Additionally, there are now 144 companies holding Bitcoin, following Microstrategy's Bitcoin strategy. Furthermore, the US strategic Bitcoin reserve plan is underway, with multiple countries and regions following suit. Insiders indicate that Trump intends to use the US Treasury's $200 billion foreign exchange stabilization fund to establish a Bitcoin reserve, with total assets exceeding $200 billion as of October 2024. If implemented, this plan would position the US at the forefront of the global Bitcoin reserve race. According to the CEO of Bitcoin Magazine, at least four new countries have approved the establishment of strategic Bitcoin reserves, including Russia, Japan, Brazil, and Germany. The three major engines are still functioning, so we believe the bull market continues.