📢 On December 19, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25BP, and the market reacted strongly!
📈 Key Market Dynamics:
The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP, but the statement showed that expectations for future rate cuts have been reduced.
Economic signals: Economic activity grew steadily, the labor market eased, the unemployment rate rose slightly, and inflation picked up slightly.
Balance sheet: The Fed will continue to shrink its balance sheet, which may continue to tighten liquidity.
📉 Market performance:
🟢 The U.S. dollar index (DXY) rose to 108, indicating that risk aversion in the market increased and funds flowed back to the U.S. dollar.
🔴 The S&P 500 suffered a sharp drop, its biggest one-day drop this year, as markets expressed concerns about the Federal Reserve's tightening policy.
🟡 Gold is approaching a critical neckline position, pay attention to whether a head and shoulders pattern forms subsequently; if it breaks the neckline, gold may face a significant correction.
⚠️ The Bitcoin top model has initially appeared, the hourly tunnel has broken down, approaching the four-hour tunnel; market sentiment is turning to fear.
🧭 Operation strategy:
1️⃣ Short-term strategy (1-3 days):
Bitcoin: If the four-hour tunnel is lost, Bitcoin will continue to correct downwards, with key support levels at $95,000 and $89,000.
Reduction suggestion: During a short-term rebound, pay attention to the pressure points of the top model, reduce positions at highs to avoid being trapped by corrections.
Pay attention to market sentiment: Currently, the market is showing **"wanting to rise but first suppressing" signals**, if fear intensifies, market volatility will increase.
2️⃣ Mid-term strategy (1-4 weeks):
Bitcoin and altcoins: There is significant short-term downward pressure; it is recommended to wait for confirmation of bottom signals before increasing positions.
Gold: Pay attention to the neckline position; if it breaks the neckline, a downward trend of the head and shoulders pattern may occur.
3️⃣ Long-term strategy (1-6 months):
Ambush quality assets: such as BTC, ETH, and XRP, wait to build positions gradually after the market adjusts.
Observe policy trends: If the Federal Reserve stops cutting interest rates, market risk assets will be under pressure, pay attention to safe-haven flows (such as the US dollar and gold).
📢 Conclusion:
The Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25BP but future rate cut expectations decrease, market liquidity tightens, the US dollar returns strongly, and risk assets are under pressure.
The top model of Bitcoin has emerged, market fear sentiment is rising; it is recommended to reduce positions at highs and wait for better buying opportunities.
Gold is facing a critical test of the neckline; if it breaks the neckline, a larger correction will be triggered, and funds may shift to the dollar and bond market.
⚠️ Key operations today:
Take profits at high positions, be wary of corrections, and pay attention to key support levels!
Pay attention to Bitcoin's support levels: $95,000 and $89,000; if lost, the market will enter a deep correction.
Gold is focused on the neckline position; once it breaks, the short-term market will face further pressure.
The market is highly volatile, control risks, and seize the next good opportunity to buy low!
