After BTC reached 108353, it began to fall continuously. My video yesterday has reminded us that a slight increase will replace sideways consolidation, waiting for the direction to be chosen. Be wary of a pullback when the market is sucking blood. In fact, as long as it is not a sharp drop, the current drop of a few points is good for the development of the long bull market as a whole. After all, some profit-taking needs to be realized. If you are still liquidated after falling by these few points, you really need to think about your trading strategy. If you cannot learn from the liquidation, you will continue to be liquidated later. In addition, I also warned yesterday not to open contracts. It is not appropriate to open contracts at this point. How will the market develop next and what are the initial signals of stopping the decline? We can discuss this. Please note that this video is only a personal review and does not constitute any investment advice. Follow us and listen every day. #加密市场盘整
Let me talk about the conclusion first, followed by news and technical analysis:
BTC: There is no major negative fundamentals. Yesterday, the King of Understanding also called for positive news, and institutions are also continuing to increase their holdings. It is expected to consolidate around 103,000, and will continue to rise in the long run. The continuous decline is also without volume, which can be regarded as continuing to consolidate in this range. All the rises must be consolidated before moving to the next step. On this basis, if it can be inserted below 100,000, it can be entered in batches, and it will be received until 85,000.
BNB: It is predicted to fluctuate in the range of 700-740. This range was also mentioned yesterday. Basically, it has not gone out of this range. Yesterday, the fourth and fifth phases of DOLDER have been falling since they were listed. However, it is better to give it away for free than to have nothing. This trend of BNB is suitable for grid trading.
ETH: Last night, it reached a new high of 4107 in three years, and then it adjusted back and consolidated. Today's main correction was also caused by BTC, which is nothing strange. In the short term, as long as BTC does not cheat people, ETH will definitely continue to rise. Below 3800 is actually very suitable for small-scale long-term fixed investment. When it returns to above 4000, the timid ones can sell some and wait for a correction.
Regarding Goubi: As mentioned in the previous videos, as long as there is no Lao Ma shouting, it will fall. It is difficult to operate coins with too many human interference factors. It is best to fall well recently, and there is still a chance for upward movement in January.
Next is the technical analysis:
1. From the K-line, after reaching a high last night, BTC has been negative for 5 consecutive 4-hour lines. To stop the decline, at least 2 4-hour lines must be positive first, and there must be a big positive, to preliminarily judge that the market is stable. At present, the 4-hour line has gone bad, but fortunately the daily line does not seem to have gone bad. If it falls again, it will be very troublesome if the daily line goes bad, and there will be a big correction.
2. Greed and Fear Index Observation: Currently 81, extremely greedy, -6 compared to yesterday, still in an unsafe range, be alert for further declines.
3. The funding rate of BTC perpetual contract is 0.0075%, and that of ETH is 0.0106%. ETH is relatively normal. The funding rate of BTC should be due to more short orders. The consolidation may be over soon, and the outcome of the game between long and short positions is getting closer.
4. The biggest pain point of options will be observed in the next three months: the price will be between 104,000 and 106,000 in the next three days. The amount is not large and the impact on the market is limited. However, in the next three months, there is no pain point exceeding 110,000.
5. Spot ETFS On December 17, BTC institutions increased their holdings by 4,584 and ETH by 36,300. The enthusiasm continues, and BTC seems to be steadily increased by institutions. ETH is still increasing significantly. If you believe in the institutions, you can allocate some ETH at the same time.
6. From the perspective of the RSI relative strength index, BTC is currently in the overbought range in the weekly dimension, and it has returned to the strong range in 24 hours, which is still overheated. ETH is strong in the weekly dimension, but it has entered the neutral range in 24 hours, and the selling pressure has further decreased, which is a good thing.
7. Judging from the top escape index, it is currently in the middle position and the risk of top escape is at a medium level.
8. The BTC hoarding index is currently high, with a value of 1.71. It is too high and hoarding coins is not cost-effective.
Overall judgment: BTC hits a new high, and if it continues to fall back, it will be an opportunity. If it can drop below ten points from the high point, it will be a very good time to enter the market. At present, for mainstream trading, you need to prepare for a short-term fluctuation of more than 10%, and for altcoins, you need to prepare for a fluctuation of 30%. For long-term bulls, you should be bearish but not short. The more you play with contracts, the more gambling they are. These two are the problems that many people lose all their money in the bull market. Also, don't open orders during the sharp rise and fall of altcoins, otherwise you will be finished in an instant. It's not nice to not pay attention to this. $BTC $ETH $BNB