What is the altcoin season? Let me explain briefly.
It must first break through the March price peak.
Then it must exceed the historical high of 2021.
During this process, funds will first flow in and then flow out.
Funds flow into BTC, and BTC's status rises, while altcoins get drained and their prices drop; when funds flow out of BTC, BTC's status decreases, altcoins attract capital, and their prices skyrocket.
This chart is based on a statistical analysis of the top 100 market cap tokens, dividing them into two categories: one that has broken through the March price peak and one that hasn't, with 50 tokens in each category. The data source is the information displayed in the chart.
From a price perspective, altcoin prices are still lingering in a bearish market. I originally wanted to see how many of the top 100 have broken through the March price peak, but the number was insufficient. Later, I expanded to the top 115 to have enough sample size. This means that among the top 115, only 50 have broken through the March price peak, and only 15 have surpassed the historical high of 2021 (excluding new coins). Compared to the March peak, only 29 have outperformed BTC.
This might be an opportunity, so how do we choose targets?
As long as the project is still running, the codebase and social media are still being updated, and there are administrators in TG and Discord, it is highly likely that institutions have already intervened. When the profit and loss are appropriate, once the time comes, it might increase three to five times in just 7 days or even 1 day. Within a month, the consolidation and accumulation of three to four years can erupt all at once. When the altcoin season explodes, it can cover the two-year bull market path of Bitcoin in just 7 days.
From an emotional perspective, the atmosphere is still bearish. Every group is quiet, and everyone is thinking about breaking even. Bitcoin's price continues to hit new highs, but the assets in everyone's wallets are shrinking.
At the true end of a bull market, it can get very crazy. People not only invest all their money, but also borrow money and take loans recklessly, charging in without a care. At that time, those buying Bitcoin will envy those buying altcoins, as selling could lead to missed opportunities, and they may never be able to buy back. The big players will create various atmospheres, but clearly, we are not at that stage yet.
How to judge the altcoin season? You need to know these four indicators:
Altcoin index. Look at whether market sentiment is leaning towards Bitcoin or altcoins. If 75% of the top 50 altcoins have performed better than Bitcoin in the past 90 days, then it is altcoin season; otherwise, it is Bitcoin season.
BTC dominance. When funds flow into BTC, BTC's status rises and altcoins drop; when funds flow out of BTC, altcoins rise.
TOTAL2. This represents the total market value of the top 125 altcoins excluding BTC, which can show the flow of funds into altcoins.
ETH/BTC exchange rate. The general flow of funds is: BTC—ETH—mainstream altcoins—secondary mainstream altcoins—meme coins. Bitcoin is faith, Ethereum is the leader, and Ethereum's strength is the premise for the explosive growth of altcoins.
In a bull market, the most feared are greed, fear, blindness, conformity, going with the flow, and chasing highs and selling lows. Because this is where only a few people make money.
If you are afraid of missing the altcoin season, then find a high cost-effective entry point and set a stop-loss. As for whether it can create a historical new high, that will depend on luck.
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In the upcoming layout direction, I will guide everyone to target the lucrative opportunities in altcoins, especially those with high potential projects, where an expected growth space of over ten times is not a problem. If you want to make big money in a bull market, like and comment, and I will take you to layout the entire bull market!
