Prediction of potential black swans in this round of bull market in the cryptocurrency circle
(2024.12.16) The bull market is still continuing in the late stage, with overall fluctuations upward. The rhythm of three steps forward and one step back is quite healthy, and the madness at the top has not yet appeared. Today, I sold a small amount of cakes symbolically at 105,000. It is not that I feel that the market has reached the top, but I want to use actions to tell myself that the next step is to sell but not buy in the escape stage (I must first break my own cleanliness psychology of being reluctant to sell in the bull market), and at the same time, don't think about holding them all in my hands and waiting to sell them all at the highest point. Clear the warehouse in batches, fight and withdraw.
There will be a lot of good news in the cryptocurrency circle in the future, and the market will definitely continue for a while. However, the market is often sniped by potential black swans when a bunch of big good news are being realized or are being realized, when everyone is almost full and crazy and reluctant to sell and increase their investment. This is essentially because the bubble can no longer be sustained in the later stage, and the slightest negative news will trigger the rush to escape by sensitive people, which will cause stampede and secondary larger-scale escape and stampede, followed by comprehensive escape and stampede. This link is a bit like nuclear fission. As long as the critical conditions of fission have been reached and triggered, it is difficult for traders to escape unscathed under the fission shock wave. So you can only be stupid and sell in batches in advance. Even if you sell out a little earlier, it is better to watch the fire from afar than to be forced to cut off your arm during the fission stampede. The following predictions may end up being irrelevant and far away from the topic. But what I want to convey is that the other probability values are written randomly and only express the size of their possibilities): 1. After the Fed cuts interest rates to a certain point, it will interrupt the interest rate cut due to the rise of inflation again or other reasons. Probability: more than 50% 2. (Now the Bitcoin market is highly correlated with the US stock market) The US stock market has a weekly and monthly correction, with a drop of more than 20% and a time of more than 3 months. Probability: more than 50% 3. A medium-sized or above financial crisis occurs in Europe and the United States, resulting in a sharp drop in the stock market due to tight liquidity. Probability: more than 30% 3. Trump's inauguration is not smooth or he encounters unexpected events during his tenure. Probability: 20%
4. Musk encountered an unexpected event when he implemented a radical new policy in the DOGE department (East Factory Efficiency Department). Probability: 15%
5. Geopolitical changes similar to the Ukrainian-Russian war will occur again, impacting the global financial market.Probability: 10%
