Today, the B circle mainly follows BTC’s trend. BTC has shown a blood-sucking consolidation at a high position, with most mainstream trends being weaker than BTC. BTC is just 1000 dollars away from its previous high and could break new highs at any moment. However, after breaking this high, the short-term growth may be limited, and it still needs to undergo a correction for consolidation. Analysis will follow, with explanations; this article is just a personal recap and does not constitute any investment advice. Videos are generally available for 24 hours, and related accounts like WeChat and Xiaohongshu can also be watched, where past videos are available for follow-up.
First, let’s state the conclusion, followed by news and technical analysis:
Regarding BTC: It is predicted to consolidate around 103000, with the daily line continuing to rise. The breakout may happen within 24 hours. However, it is unlikely to deviate significantly from the previous high, or there should be a major correction before the 27th.
Regarding BNB: It is expected to fluctuate in the 700-740 range, still within the 62nd period of the Launchpool airdrop range. Today is overall weak, and a breakout will need to wait until BTC breaks through. After all, the recent airdrops have not seen significant increases. It is suitable to do some quantitative trading after the airdrop ends.
Regarding ETH: Institutions continue to increase their holdings, and there is reason to remain optimistic. It is suitable to buy on dips, especially when BTC breaks through its new high, there will be more room for growth.
At this time, do not think that BNB's 720 and ETH's 3900 are low; rather, reconsider that these are their normal positions corresponding to BTC's 104000.
Next is the technical analysis:
1. From the candlestick chart, BTC has been consolidating above 101000 for 10 consecutive 4-hour candles, but the volume has been decreasing. This at least proves that the moving averages are rising, but if it breaks above, there may be limited upward space.
2. Greed and Fear Index observation: Currently at 80, which is categorized as greedy. This value is very close to extreme greed, which is quite dangerous.
3. BTC perpetual contract funding rate is 0.0077%, while ETH is 0.0100%. BTC has noticeably decreased compared to last night, with significantly more short positions than yesterday. One must be cautious of a sell-off after reaching a new high.
4. Observing the maximum pain point of options for the next three months: For the next three days, it is above 101000, but the volume remains, and its reference value is low. There is no threat of breaking through 104000 within 48 hours.
5. ETFS will rest on Saturday, and observation will resume on Monday night. If the increase after breaking the new high is not significant, there should still be inflows.
6. Looking at the RSI (Relative Strength Index), it remains the same as yesterday. B special B is currently in the overbought range on a weekly basis, and strong for the last 24 hours, but somewhat overheated, with high selling pressure. ETH is also strong on a weekly basis and remains strong for the last 24 hours, with relatively less selling pressure compared to B special B.
7. From the escape top index, it is currently at a middle position, with the risk of escaping the top being at a moderate level.
8. The B special B coin holding index is currently high, with a value of 1.58, which is extremely unsuitable for regular investments in coin holding.
Overall judgment: BTC could break new highs at any time. If it breaks high without sufficient volume, the increase after the breakout may not be significant, and a major correction might occur. At this time, avoid opening contracts randomly to prevent being harvested.