The mainstream and big copycat currencies in the cryptocurrency market today fluctuated slightly. In fact, the past 24 hours were still in a consolidation process. All currencies were repairing the recent surge, and the daily moving averages of most currencies were also rising. Consolidation and repair after a fast bull market are necessary processes. Only after consolidation can there be a possibility of continuing to move upward. If you don't have an operating idea, don't do it blindly. It is also a good choice to save FDUSD to participate in the airdrop. Come on, continue to make a comprehensive judgment from the news and technical analysis. Follow me and pay less tuition. This review is not any investment advice, but only for personal review research.
First, the conclusion, followed by news and technical analysis:
On the BTC side: The prediction maintains consolidation around 98000-102000. Note that the daily line is continuously rising, and breaking the previous high is of low probability, but not impossible. The speculation remains that after breaking the high, it will not rise too high before December 27. The downward space before this date is far greater than the upward space. There may be another opportunity before January 20, at which point a comprehensive analysis will be conducted.
On the BNB side: If the entire mainstream market does not fluctuate, it should remain relatively stable before 8 AM on December 14, and may perform stronger than other mainstream coins. After all, the 62nd LAUNCHPOOL airdrop is coming, and the new coin is VANA, with a duration of two days. Once the news broke, BNB saw a slight uptick. There have been many BNB airdrops recently, with two LAUNCHPOOLs and two HODLERs, proving that the golden shovel is truly well-deserved. Playing BNB with patience and quantification is definitely comfortable.
On the Tai Fang side: Very strong, consistently striving to break through 4000 and take off again, with significant potential for a short-term surge. However, don’t expect this coin to double in the short term due to its massive size.
On the Gourd coin side: As for news coins, it still depends on the milk, after all, it has risen too much in the past month.
Next is the technical analysis:
1. From the candlestick chart, BTC continues to consolidate in the 100000 range from the 7-day moving average and 4-hour line. Both Tai Fang and BNB, as well as the Gourd coin, are actually consolidating and moving higher on the daily line. The candlestick movements indicate a bullish market route.
2. Observing the Greed and Fear Index: Currently at 76, which indicates greed. The market is in the greed range, with an average of 58% over the past year, so this range is a comfortable zone for a slow bull market. There has been no sharp decline that can bring it back to this range, indicating that the market is relatively stable in the short term.
3. The funding rate for BTC perpetual contracts is 0.0103%, while Tai Fang is at 0.0099%, which is at a relatively normal level. Long and short positions are relatively normal, with a slight decline in Tai Fang indicating a slight increase in short contracts. However, this does not change the trend and overall situation of Tai Fang.
4. Observing the maximum pain point of options in the next three months: Before December 27, the maximum pain point does not exceed 100500, and this 100500 is on December 14, but it is only 400 million dollars, which has minimal impact on the overall market. On December 27, the maximum pain point of 80000 has 14.4 billion dollars, and the larger this value is, the harder it is for BTC to surge before the settlement date.
5. ETFs continue to see inflows. On December 12, institutions increased their holdings by 5900 BTC, and have been increasing daily for nearly a week, showing a good trend, with most institutions continuing to add to their positions. Tai Fang has also seen continuous increases, with a single-day increase reaching an astonishing 75,000 coins, indicating high enthusiasm, which lays a solid foundation for Tai Fang's upcoming surge and makes it very resilient.
6. Looking at the RSI (Relative Strength Index), BTC is currently in the overbought range on a weekly dimension, and in the last 24 hours, it is strong, somewhat overheated, and selling pressure is relatively high. Tai Fang is in a strong position on a weekly dimension, with relatively less selling pressure than BTC.
7. From the escape top index, it is currently at a middle position, with escape top risks at a medium level.
8. The BTC hoarding index is currently relatively high, with a value of 1.55, making it extremely unsuitable for regular investment and hoarding.
Overall judgment: BTC continues to consolidate, and the probability of breaking the previous high is low. There is relatively more short-term support from Tai Fang and BNB, and returns are relatively promising. As for mainstream coins, it’s good to hold some, after all, if the East does not shine, the West will. Remember, at this position, do not engage in contracts. Additionally, be reminded that during the process of sharp rises and falls, altcoins should not be played with contracts, as they can easily lead to liquidation and going home to eat old rice.