Can TWT repeat the pump fate of BNB? A question received in a private message.
We have written many times that there are four key factors contributing to this:
1. A strong fundamental basis for the project, the TOP-1 crypto wallet in the world and a flagship for innovations in this sector. A team that is steadily growing and expanding.
2. Very low, negligible capitalization of the project - only $577 million. There is plenty of room for growth during alt season - that's putting it mildly.
3. The tokenomics of the asset is suitable for a pump, with 'manual control' by the key beneficiary. There are no unlocks, etc. There is a maximum supply of 1 billion tokens, of which the current market supply of #TWT is 416,649,900 tokens, and it has not changed in recent years. The total supply of #TWT (including non-circulating tokens held by #Binance) is 999,668,148 tokens.
4. And finally, the very same beneficiary who has already 'tested' such a pump scheme in the past.
Key questions - WHEN and HOW HIGH? When can the price finally show growth similar to the growth of #BNB in 2021?
If we switch to monthly timeframes for BNB and TWT, the timing for a pump to repeat exactly has already passed. Even if we only take the charts from Binance (and there is a nuance that #TWT has been traded on #Gate for a longer time) - the pump should have occurred in April 2024. Instead, the entire crypto market, led by BTC, has begun a prolonged correction.
BUT overall, if we take the structure of the BNB and TWT charts over three years since the start of trading on Binance - they are VERY similar. The differences up to April are minimal.
In our investment portfolio, we are no longer buying additional #TWT; it has been fully stocked since the last cycle. But we have written many times that a price below $1 for the asset is a gift that we would have purchased. Otherwise, all the corrections that have occurred over the past two years, had we bought them, would have only worsened our entry point.
Is it possible to somehow predict the timing of a pump? For BNB, all this significant growth in the last cycle occurred from January to May 2021. +1479% in less than six months. Our Trend & Target Dynamics indicator, had it existed then, would have allowed for +1640% from November 2020 to May 2021, even from trend change to trend change (that is, not to the high).
Can history repeat itself exactly in terms of timing? Quite possibly. According to our calculations, the high for TWT in this cycle could be set in May-June 2025. The truly explosive growth for #BNB began with a strong signal of a potential high on the daily timeframe at the beginning of February. So if a similar signal occurs soon for TWT - one should not draw a definitive conclusion that the high is set and it's time to exit.
The buy signal according to our indicator on the weekly timeframe for TWT was back in late October 2023, at a price of $1.3187. That is significantly earlier, a year ago. And since then, the price has been noticeably lower - at $0.6851.
Passenger drop-offs, precisely those expecting explosive growth, have occurred many times over the past two years (since the pump in November 2022). But that doesn't mean there won't be growth. Another potential loyalty signal on the weekly timeframe was at the end of August - early September this year; since then, the price has shown growth, already doubling.
There is little sense in fully relying on the #BNB fractal, but if we fully correlate the charts of the two assets, roughly matching prices - the target for TWT in this cycle will be about $30.
A capitalization of $12.5 billion or, with full market supply, around $30 billion does not sound fantastical at all. But overall, considering a longer and more exhausting consolidation than that of BNB, we would like to see a higher result. Here, we will focus not on the asset's price, but on the timing and signals from our indicator.
