Has the momentum of the crash stopped? From the data, the number of liquidations in the last 24 hours still maintains at 200,000, with the liquidation amount significantly shrinking. From last night to today, most coins have rebounded from the previous night’s bottom line. Due to the occurrence of historical-level contract liquidations, the danger of targeted liquidations against retail investors by the main forces has also significantly decreased. In this round, many main forces will find that two mainstream assets supported by ETFs are very difficult to blow up. This is also why many experts now say that this round of liquidations has, to some extent, displaced funds from altcoins to mainstream assets. So how is the market likely to move next? We need to comprehensively judge from both the news and technical analysis. Follow me, pay less tuition; this review does not constitute any investment advice, it is only for personal review and research.
First, let's state the conclusion, followed by analysis from the news and technical perspectives: The current panic has basically reached its peak, and both mainstream and altcoins are fighting back.
Regarding BTC: It maintains consolidation in the range of 95000 to 100000, with a low probability of deviating too much from 98000 in the short term; reasons can be seen in the later analysis. Below 95000, opportunities will gradually exceed risks, and one can continue to buy in spot until reaching 80000.
Regarding BNB: Without the support of ETFs, its relative stability is weaker than that of BTC and ETFs. There is strong support above 650, suitable for quantitative trading.
Regarding ETH: Support above 3600 is very strong, suitable for daily small investments, waiting for an explosion, after all, institutions have significantly increased their holdings in a short time.
Regarding the coin of Guo: It is essentially a coin that people call out, as long as Old Ma shouts, it is more useful than any analysis. It is suitable for investing below 0.4, super long-term investment. Opening contracts is easy to blow up.
Other altcoins, if there are profits, just switch to mainstream. Altcoins are temporarily enjoyable, but they will all be returned. Having little money is not a reason to invest in altcoins; what the big players eat are these small bets with high risk.
Next is the technical analysis:
1. From the K-line, BTC can be seen consolidating in the range of 90000 to 100000 on the daily and 4-hour charts. Looking at the weekly chart, it shows only slight fluctuations. As long as BTC holds steady, the overall bull market is still in place.
2. Observation of the Greed and Fear Index: Currently at 74, which belongs to greed, within the normal range of a bull market, indicating that even though there was a large liquidation yesterday, the enthusiasm for the entire bull market is still there.
3. The perpetual contract funding rate for BTC is 0.0107%, and for ETH, it is 0.0089%, which is at a relatively normal level. The long and short positions are in a relatively normal state. Unless there is a short-term fluctuation, it is relatively safe for now.
4. Observation of the maximum pain point for options in the next three months: In the next two weeks, a large number of options have a maximum pain point at 98000, so it is judged that the deviation from 100,000 within the next two weeks will not be too far. Attention should also be paid to December 27, where the maximum pain point at 80000 has surprisingly risen to 14 billion USD, which is definitely a big pit.
5. ETFS continue to see inflows, on December 10, institutions increased their holdings by 4508 BTC, and most institutions continued to increase their holdings. ETH also saw continued increases, with a single-day increase reaching an astonishing 80,000 coins. Users are enthusiastic about purchasing through institutions, and the support and stability of ETH above 3600 have further strengthened.
6. From the RSI (Relative Strength Index), BTC is currently in the overbought zone on a weekly scale, which also requires caution regarding risks. The good news is that the indicators within 24 hours are neutral, indicating that selling pressure has significantly decreased.
7. From the top escape index, it is currently at a middle position, with a medium level of risk in escaping the peak.
8. The BTC holding index is currently high, with a value of 1.455, which is not suitable for dollar-cost averaging.
Overall, the short-term judgment is still primarily consolidation. Remember, no one can accurately predict, we can only assess risks and opportunities. When risks exceed opportunities, wait; when opportunities exceed risks, enter the market in batches.