Behind every major rally, there's always a deep washout; only by clearing out most of the long investors can pave the way for the next round of rises.
The current major players hold a large number of concentrated chips, so each fluctuation is exceptionally intense. Altcoins have returned to the fluctuation mode of two weeks ago, and retail investors' mentality is constantly being worn down during this wave of ups and downs.
After experiencing the fluctuations of gains and losses, FOMO emotions become increasingly strong, and the risk of making mistakes also increases, ultimately leading to losses.
Regarding Bitcoin:
Seeing many people clearing their positions yesterday, claiming to 'lock in profits,' but I chose to increase my position instead of retreating.
I believe that as long as Bitcoin doesn't drop below the $90,000 low from the day before yesterday, there is no need to panic; this is just a technical pullback.
Looking back at history, sharp declines in bull markets are not uncommon; take a look at these data:
In 2017, Bitcoin experienced multiple pullbacks, with the maximum drop reaching 40%;
In 2020, it also experienced multiple pullbacks, with the maximum drop being 30%.
So, this pullback is just another adjustment, building momentum for future rises. The current market urgently needs an opportunity to break through the $100,000 barrier and establish a firm footing!
I hope Bitcoin can challenge $200,000 next year, but this is indeed not easy unless Trump quickly fulfills his promise to incorporate Bitcoin into the national reserves and make massive purchases!
But anyway, I still hold a bullish view; at least $150,000 is a nailed-down target! Today's psychological massage ends here, let's prepare to welcome the next wave of increase together!
Back to today's BTC daily MA30, it has moved up again and is getting closer to the coin price, currently showing a strong support position.
The timing for consolidating at the bottom is approaching; all we can do now is patiently wait. If you missed the opportunities at $60,000 and $70,000, then now is undoubtedly a unique big opportunity — after the MA30 successfully bottoms, the possibility of breaking out of the narrow fluctuation is quite high, and this cycle may be slightly extended.
What I want to say is that Bitcoin hasn't plummeted as people say; the so-called 'plunge' actually only exists in the altcoin market.
If you only hold BTC, you'll find that the volatility isn't that intense! Today's intraday resistance is $98,500, while the support level is at $94,000.
Regarding Ethereum:
Now I see more clearly! When Ethereum's price reached $3,960, I anticipated the $3,550 position, but I never expected a spike directly hitting the extreme position of $3,440! The dog player really doesn't play by the rules; it's too ruthless!
Regarding altcoins:
Currently, the profit-taking positions of altcoins are not large near the cost line. From the current entry point and intraday market situation, the overall condition is actually quite stable.
As for the old mainstream coins, I personally believe their trends are not finished yet. With a conservative mindset, consider increasing your reserved funds for buying back by one-third.
The market often won't bottom out when everyone thinks it has truly bottomed out, nor will it provide the best opportunity when most people feel it's time to buy at the bottom — after all, most investors are always late to realize.
However, from a technical perspective, many previously outstanding altcoin sectors may still experience a sharp drop before another widespread rally.
So, this position may be a relatively safe entry point. Those who dare to brave the currents are often the top few in the industry.
But anyway, everyone should make choices based on their own mentality and actual situation, and rationally think through their investment strategy!
The pullback on Monday and Tuesday has made many people worried, with some lowering their expectations to $80,000, $70,000, and some even predicting a drop to $30,000. My goodness, if the market were really led by these people, it would be a 'slaughtering pig plate'!
Tonight's CPI data is released, and I am still betting on a rally.
The logic is similar to the trend after last Friday's non-farm payroll data; short-term declines generally won't exceed 72 hours, and once rebounding occurs, a strong recovery is likely. After today's rebound, consider going short again, but be sure to take profits in time and be more cautious with positions than on Monday and Tuesday.
Recently, the market experienced a secondary pullback, many people started to panic, and many 'silly whale' friends around me asked if it's still safe to hold spot? Has the bull market really ended? Meanwhile, those seasoned investors remain as steady as a mountain, their mentality unshaken.
After all, Bitcoin's push towards $100,000 and the six-figure psychological barrier will inevitably trigger a slight pullback in altcoins, which is expected.
In fact, the pullback is a process of self-adjustment in the market. If this wave didn't pull back and shot straight up, I would start to worry that it might mean the 'tail risk' moment has arrived.
Most altcoins have experienced a pullback, but now is the best time to focus on those high-quality spot targets and prepare to buy at the bottom! Whether you dare to pull the trigger will determine if you can seize this opportunity!
Chips from top casinos (ETH, SOL, SUI)
In the casino supply chain, it's best for service providers with core positions to link coin prices with cash flow.
The king of the meme race (Doge, Pepe) — already the benchmark of the race and widely accepted!
Choosing coins in the secondary market, avoiding pitfalls is key; choosing the right coins makes a difference!
Never buy those new coins that you haven’t used yourself or don’t even know what they are, or those GameFi dead coins that you don’t even play; stop touching those pseudo-meme coins.
If you're stuck, you're always thinking 'the major player will eventually pull it back,' but the major player has already shaken you off and moved on to the next play. Invest wisely for yourself; don't choose the hell mode for a simple strategy!
This wave of decline has washed away $2 billion in leverage, altcoin funding rates have returned to normal, market divergence has intensified, and from the major player's perspective, this operation has been precisely executed.
For those who have already escaped the peak, this isn't bad; promptly take profits and happily secure your gains. Those who remain need to have enough courage to face the challenge of high risk and high returns.
Only those who stay in the market can reap greater rewards. Those enviable crypto wealth stories, which one of them isn't about bold individuals who persisted until the end? Have you heard of stories of becoming rich through swing trading?
Behind the sharp decline lies a profound market logic: why is it so difficult to escape the peak?
Because after every adjustment in a bull market, the market will quickly rebound and continue to surge. Those who think they have succeeded in swing trading often re-enter with heavy positions.
With this repeated pattern, speculators have formed a conditioned reflex like Pavlov's dogs — every pullback strengthens their bullish outlook, increasing their positions and courage.
Even when the market shows obvious signs of decline, with drops reaching 30% or even 50%, those who are used to swing trading still hold onto fantasies, thinking 'this time it will continue to reach new highs like before.'
However, once the market enters a bear phase, every long position feels like looking for death, and only then do you realize that the market has long entered a bear phase. But by that time, it's too late for fantasies because the realization comes after it’s already too late.
The upcoming market trend could be the last stage of this bull market: an accelerated market. The decisive battle is just a couple of months away. Wishing everyone prosperity!!!