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Will $BTC fall to $90,000?
Recently, the Bitcoin market has experienced volatility, with prices dropping to around $97,000 on December 10, a decline of over 4% in the past 24 hours, down 6.40% from a historical high of $103,650 five days ago. This downward trend occurred ahead of a crucial shareholder vote at Microsoft, which will determine whether Bitcoin will be incorporated into the company's treasury.
On the eve of the U.S. presidential election on October 24, Microsoft added a section titled "Evaluation of Investment in Bitcoin" in its 14A form submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), indicating that the company is assessing the possibility of Bitcoin as a diversification tool. However, the "Board's Recommendation" section advises shareholders to vote against it, stating that the company’s management has conducted an in-depth evaluation of the matter.
Before the vote on December 10, interest in the keyword "Microsoft Bitcoin" surged on Google search. This typically reflects the curiosity of retail traders, and the recent drop in Bitcoin may be related to traders' cautious attitude before the vote, especially considering that the Microsoft board does not support the proposal to incorporate Bitcoin into the company's funds. This could also lower market expectations, with traders believing that Bitcoin prices may further decline after the voting results are announced.
Meanwhile, the drop in Bitcoin prices is also due to significant fluctuations in the prices of Bitcoin held by traders for 6 to 12 months. According to data shared by on-chain analyst Miniole, between December 4 and December 7, these long-term holders transferred approximately 179,000 BTC. These tokens may have realized profits close to $100,000.
The ongoing price adjustment of Bitcoin corresponds with a rising daily profit and loss (P/L) ratio, which has recently aligned with the historical peak level when Bitcoin reached $73,400 in the first quarter of 2024. Historically, a higher profit and loss ratio indicates that long-term holders may be taking profits, although in some cases, the selling pressure from profit-takers can be absorbed by retail investors.
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