Given that Bitcoin is up over 100% for the second year in a row and has been hovering around 100,000 for a few weeks now,
It's no surprise that everyone on X seems to be debating whether the bubble is breaking or peaking. Since I think we're still early in the Bitcoin/US stock debasement story, here's my take in a thread including a signal/chart that worked the last two times and I think needs to happen again before the next cycle tops.
1/ First of all, if we take the Internet bubble as an example of a bubble to compare the Bitcoin graph,
The NDX from 12/90-3/00 has seen 40% annual growth and has not had a down year, with 1999 seeing a rise of over 100%. Bitcoin's chart over the last three years is not a bubble.
2/ I think Michael Saylor and MSTR had a bigger impact than people realize in creating the bubble debate and limiting the strength of that movement.
Clearly, his purchases contribute to market strength, but many of the "smarter", more experienced and wealthier market participants see MSTR as a joke and signs of a bubble.
3/ 2020/21 was clearly a bubble with my 13 year old son printing money,
altcoins and NFTs in the news and celebrities showcasing crypto everywhere. Basically, it all worked. The altcoin index is still 50% off the bubble highs and was near three-year lows just a few weeks ago.
4/ The second largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum, hasn't even reached new all-time highs yet.
5/ I can't believe I'd ever use Hawk Tuah's daughter as a proxy for macro vision, but the fact that she flipped a meme coin and went bankrupt in less than a day is perhaps the biggest reason why this isn't a bubble. (use your imagination for a visual for this one)
6/ Finally,
At this point where it is being adopted every day by institutional investors and more credible countries and impacting elections and where there has been the launch of the ETF that is now experiencing the fastest growth in the history of ETFs, there is another important sign that is still missing.....
7/ ....Every day I receive more sales research than I could ever review,
covering everything they can make money on. Yet research on digital assets is limited, they are not included in outlooks, and most small retail investors are still not encouraged or allowed to buy them on banks' platforms.
8/ So here is what I think we need to see for a real end to this particular cycle.
I think the adoption cycle at this point should be measured by a true depreciation against the most important part of the fiat stock market, the MAG7. The last two peaks of the cycle ended with a massive rally in Bitcoin against the MAG7. In my content, I have called Bitcoin the purest AI transaction because it accelerates the path to the new economic system of abundance. Look at this chart for a true cycle top.
#2023withBinance #tendance #vues
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