Ether is an interesting concept in classical elemental theory; it seems intangible but is considered the foundation that permeates the universe, hidden within all things. The characteristics of ether illustrate a principle: grasping the surface while ignoring the essence behind it is just a waste of time. In cryptocurrency trading, many people fixate on candlestick charts and are addicted to quantitative trading, doing exactly such things.
What is a candlestick? It is a record of past market behavior, with red and green bars representing rises and falls, which looks clear and intuitive, but this is merely superficial fluctuation. The essence of the market is far more complex than these graphics. Behind trading are too many unseen 'ethers': changes in the macro economy, fluctuations in market sentiment, intentions of large capital manipulation, and even sudden policy interventions. These factors constitute the true driving force of the market, but they are often hidden and do not directly reflect on the candlestick chart.
What about quantitative trading? It attempts to interpret the market with algorithms and make data-driven decisions, which seems to enter a more scientific realm. However, the problem is that this science is built on past data, while the dynamic nature of the market is uncertain. Whether past patterns can be applied to the future is a question that no one can answer. Quantitative trading often falls into a misconception: it tries to capture random fluctuations in the market, mistaking noise for signals, and the final result is the loss of principal. Just like ancient philosophers tried to explain all the laws of the universe with ether, quantitative traders are often blinded by data.
Some say that staring at candlesticks and optimizing quantitative models can make trading more precise, but the reality is that most people who rely on these methods are just wasting their time. Watching candlesticks is like trying to predict the entire tide direction by observing the shape of the waves; being limited to the surface will only make you lost in the details. Successful traders have never focused on short-term fluctuations, but rather on the logic behind the market, such as supply and demand relationships, emotional cycles, and trends in capital flow.
The market is essentially a zero-sum game, and those who try to profit from short-term fluctuations often end up becoming the market's 'chives'. Exchanges do not care whether you make money; they care about your trading frequency because, regardless of wins or losses, trading fees are their source of profit. The more frequently you look at candlesticks and adjust your strategies, the more you are contributing to the exchange's income, while your own profitability does not improve.
Therefore, instead of wasting time on these appearances, it is better to learn to understand the 'ether' of the market. Accept the randomness and uncertainty of the market, and establish robust strategies, rather than trying to beat the market by looking at candlesticks or adjusting quantitative parameters. The market's fluctuations are as intangible as ether; they cannot be controlled, but you can find a path to coexist with it by understanding its essence. This is the way to survive in the long term.
