Macroeconomic interpretation: The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose to 224,000 last week, reaching a new high for the month, exceeding the expected 215,000, with the previous value revised to 215,000. At the same time, the number of continuing claims decreased by 25,000 to 1.871 million, with the previous value revised to 1.896 million. The rise in initial jobless claims in the U.S. exceeded expectations, reflecting some changes that may be occurring in the labor market, but the decrease in continuing claims also indicates that the employment market remains relatively stable.
The latest data released by the World Gold Council is noteworthy, with central banks around the world significantly increasing their gold purchases in October. The net gold purchase volume in October reached 60 tons, setting a record high for 2024. Among them, the Reserve Bank of India performed outstandingly, increasing its gold reserves by 27 tons, followed by Turkey and Poland with increases of 17 tons and 8 tons, respectively. The increased gold purchases by central banks reflect the important position and appeal of gold in the global economic environment.
In the energy market, OPEC+ has decided to extend its policy of reducing oil production by a total of 3.66 million barrels per day until the end of 2026, delaying the voluntary production reduction plan of 2.2 million barrels per day from eight countries by three months until April of next year, and extending the originally planned one-year gradual production recovery period to 18 months. The UAE seeks to gradually increase production by 300,000 barrels per day from April of next year to September 2026. As a result, the settlement price of crude oil slightly declined. OPEC+'s decision has impacted the crude oil market, and the slight drop in oil prices indicates the market's adjustment to the balance of supply and demand.
In terms of financial market performance, the three major U.S. stock indices collectively closed lower last night, while cryptocurrency concepts fluctuated. By the close, the Dow Jones fell 0.55%, the Nasdaq fell 0.18%, and the S&P dropped 0.19%. The yield on the U.S. ten-year Treasury bond fell by 0.096%, closing at 4.178%, compared to a difference of 3.2 basis points with the two-year Treasury yield. The VIX volatility index rose by 0.67% to 13.54, while Brent crude oil fell 0.36% to 72.14. Spot gold dropped 0.68% yesterday, reporting at $2631.99 per ounce. The dollar index fell 0.61% yesterday, reporting at 105.72.
#美股 's decline was influenced by various factors, including #非农数据 , reflecting the market's differing views on the prospects of different companies. Due to the impending non-farm payroll data, stock indices lost momentum and collectively fell slightly. Tech giants showed mixed performance, with #特斯拉 rising over 3%, Microsoft and Amazon increasing, while Meta declined, and Intel continued to drop after replacing its CEO. Bitcoin experienced a high-level correction, leading to a decline in cryptocurrency concept stocks.
The performance of the Hong Kong stock market is influenced by various sector factors, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.92%, the National Index down 1%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.77%. Sector performances varied, with large tech stocks showing mixed results, while biopharmaceuticals and other sectors generally declined, and cryptocurrency concept stocks continued to surge.
The performance of global assets reflects the complexity and sensitivity of the market, with various factors intertwined. Investors need to closely monitor macroeconomic data, policy changes, and market sentiment. In global asset performance, international oil prices slightly declined, with WTI January crude futures and Brent February crude futures both experiencing minor drops. The dollar index fell approximately 0.6% on the eve of the non-farm payrolls report, while the yen briefly rose above 150.
In the cryptocurrency sector, #BTC☀ hit a new high of $104,000 before experiencing a significant pullback in the early morning, dropping to below $91,000 at its lowest. #比特币今晨触及90.5K
BTC data analysis:
BTC fluctuated nearly $15,000 yesterday, peaking at $104,630 before dropping, with Binance contracts hitting a low of $90,200, while another platform saw a low of $88,664.7. Data shows over $1 billion in liquidations across the network in 24 hours, with long liquidations at $735 million and short liquidations at $268 million. A total of 160,627 users were liquidated. The three largest liquidations occurred at 6:28 AM today on a certain platform, each close to $19 million.
In our analysis yesterday, we mentioned that 'the current funding rate is very high, reaching a level of 0.1% across the network. Be cautious of potential long liquidations and pullback trends before settlement. The long support position should continue to reference the rising trend line on the 4-hour chart, which has roughly moved up to around $95,000.' Combining previous analysis, we have mentioned that the lower support level references the main chip concentration area below $91,000, with medium-term supports at $87,000 and $85,000, aligning with our predictions. Currently, the upper short-term pressure references around $101,500 and $104,088. However, U.S. stocks began to experience slight corrections last night, which may also impact BTC. Tonight, there will be non-farm payroll and unemployment rate data, which warrants close attention.
