December 4, 2024, at 4:30 PM market analysis: Bitcoin, BNB trend analysis#bnb创历史新高
Bitcoin's indicator observation first:
1. From a technical indicator perspective, after dipping to 93,578 last night, it has currently retraced to around 96,700. It can still be viewed as fluctuating around the 95,000 level. Last night, there was some chaos in South Korea, causing the Bitcoin price on South Korean exchanges to plummet to above 60,000 for a time. Therefore, I still advise everyone not to trade on small exchanges, as it can lead to issues. It is estimated that many players on smaller platforms will shift to the major exchanges after last night. Currently, there are no good entry points; opportunities will gradually appear below 90,000. If you really want to trade, just engage in some small-scale quantitative trading.
2. Greed and fear index observation: currently at 78, up 4 from yesterday, still in the greed range, which is a normal slow bull sentiment range.
3. Observing the maximum pain point for options over the next three months: the maximum pain point in the past six months has not exceeded 100,000 USD. The options contract holding ratio is at 57%. Within two weeks, the prices of options and contracts are close, and until a clear direction is established, all parties seem to be holding back, speculating that the price deviation from 95,000 will not be too far.
4. ETFs continue to see inflows. On December 3rd, institutions increased their holdings by 7,049 Bitcoins, which is a significant increase on a daily level, indicating that the overall market remains optimistic about price development, solidifying around the 95,000 level.
5. Bitcoin's MVRV Z-score is currently around 3, which is relatively safe, and the probability of a major crash is low.
6. From the peak escape index, it is currently at a middle position, with the risk of escaping the peak at a moderate level.
7. The Bitcoin accumulation index is currently high, making it unsuitable for regular investment accumulation.
8. The RSI heatmap of the crypto market shows that Bitcoin is currently in a neutral position, and the market is in a phase of stability.
In summary, Bitcoin is likely to fluctuate around 95,000, with a low probability of breaking 100,000 today or tomorrow. From a daily perspective, it is still in a narrow consolidation phase. Before a clear direction is established, do not hold a heavy position. Proceed with caution when entering coins that have already surged.
BNB has finally surged and has caught up. It reached a peak of 774.69, with an intraday increase of over 20%. This can be seen as a compensatory rise for loyal fans. After this round of increase, the exchange rate of BNB to Bitcoin has returned to a level similar to that before the election of President Trump, hence reaching the first phase of compensation. At this position, it is advisable to reduce holdings appropriately and shift to quantitative strategies, holding some other assets to ride the waves.
On December 3rd, institutions increased their holdings of Ethereum by 36,400 units. Currently, only this asset has not caught up. Given the strong support from institutions, there may be some opportunities in the future, so it is advisable to accumulate at lower prices. The only issue with Ethereum is that its exchange rate with Bitcoin is in a downward channel, which is something to be cautious about. Historically, Ethereum should fluctuate in sync with Bitcoin, so this point is also somewhat suspicious.