Experts believe that the recent decline is a shakeout before Bitcoin surpasses $100,000 to move towards new price highs, possibly reaching $147,000.
After a week of slowing down due to massive profit-taking selling pressure, Bitcoin (BTC) jumped to around $98,500 in the last trading session of the week, holding around the $97,000-$98,000 mark this morning, up nearly 2% in the past 24 hours. CoinDesk 20 - the index of the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization excluding stablecoins, memecoins, and exchange tokens - also rose nearly 7% this morning, indicating that altcoins are also rising in unison.
Shares of Bitcoin mining companies listed in the US have performed quite well in the last trading session of the week. This group does not always rise in tandem with BTC prices.
Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) quickly surpassed the $100,000 mark before easing slightly, according to TradingView data. This is the second time this significant milestone has been recorded. The futures option fees compared to the spot market also indicate strong participation from institutions and are at an all-time high. Coinbase emphasizes that the market's bullish momentum is driven by investors in the US.
CoinDesk cites a report from cryptocurrency analysis company CryptoQuant suggesting that BTC's pullback from the $100,000 level is merely a temporary obstacle before surpassing even higher resistance. CryptoQuant's P&L Index - an indicator signaling whether BTC is overvalued or undervalued - shows that this asset is firmly in an upward trend but is still far from the overvaluation levels it reached at previous peaks in 2021, 2017, and 2013.
"Breaking through the $100,000 resistance is just a matter of time; Bitcoin could rise to at least $147,000 before reaching the peak of the cycle," analysts from CryptoQuant said.
CryptoQuant is not the only company optimistic about BTC's upward momentum. Recently, Galaxy Research stated that the price is expected to reach $100,000 soon and could increase further, citing that the upcoming US administration will implement many institutions supporting cryptocurrencies and the potential to create a national Bitcoin reserve.
Similarly, CoinDesk cites the opinion of investment management firm ARK Invest predicting a price target by the end of this year to be $104,000-$124,000. Their forecast is based on the seasonality of Bitcoin as well as on-chain metrics. According to ARK Invest's perspective, the bullish cycle still has a long way to go until the market shows enough signs indicating a reversal trend. This means BTC will reach new price highs in the near future and will experience a significant decline similar to that of 2022.
The investment management company believes Bitcoin is about 55-65% through its cycle, meaning the price peak could reach $126,000-$134,000. They are also optimistic that the price target could be higher if the market accelerates. The market could be driven by the upcoming administration of Donald Trump, depending on whom he chooses to chair the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and whether the Federal Reserve's monetary policy supports cryptocurrencies.
Although the absolute value results in a high level, the reality still shows that Bitcoin's profits are gradually decreasing after each bullish cycle. According to ARK Invest's model, this cryptocurrency has a peak of $134,000, which represents only a doubling compared to the 2021 peak of $69,000. Previously, BTC had tripled compared to the 2017 cycle.
Additionally, this analysis group notes that the price of Bitcoin will not continue to soar indefinitely. Seasonality and cycles mean that the leading cryptocurrency may have to go through a strong 'crash' phase and could potentially decline by up to 70% from its all-time high.
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